Quite a long article! I have to admit something: I skimmed through it. So, there might be lots of good points that I missed / did not understand. However, here are some of my comments…
“I am bearish on Bitcoin’s odds of becoming mass, non-custodial Medium-of-Exchange.”
I am not. There are circular Bitcoin economies popping up everywhere. I believe that this trend is going to follow an S-curve. And within these Bitcoin circular economies we are going to find a lot of different kind of Bitcoiners. The most advanced ones are going to self-custody. Some are going to trust federated models etc.. Some are going to use custodial wallets.
Besides, IMHO ‘digital gold’ does not have ANY value in a credit based monetary system. I honestly think that guns & ammo offer a better protection against the fiat system than ‘digital gold’.
Bitcoin is peer-to-peer cash (no third parties required) or it’s worthless.
“I demoted Bitcoin into a trade and a Great Taking scenario hedge."
I just don’t understand the logic here… I believe that some version of the Great Taking is obviously coming. And Bitcoin is the only non-physical thing that you can own in a situation like that.
So, I just don’t understand the logic of demoting “Bitcoin into a trade and a Great Taking scenario hedge”. It would be fun to know what kind of stuff he prefers to Bitcoin in a Great Taking scenario…
“Bitcoin’s survival and adoption depend on whether its most committed users can detect, coordinate, and counter inevitable policy, market, and social attacks. I am not particularly bullish on any community, but I’d be more bullish on a community that has a single goal and some courage than a community that is pulling in ten different directions.”
I don’t get this one either. The reason why the Bitcoin community “is pulling in ten different directions” is simple: there are different opinions on what is the best way forward. And there are some bad actors too.
So, nothing new here. There were the blocksize wars. Now we have new wars. And later we are going to have more wars. What’s the problem?
There are more and more people joining the Bitcoin network. All of the forces pulling into different directions will become bigger too. And at the same time, the best version of Bitcoin will become stronger too.
“BTC trends toward supervised reserve/instrument (Store-of-Value inside custody), not everyday Medium-of-Exchange."
Like said, Bitcoin Circular Economies are popping up everywhere, but most of them are in the places where Bitcoin is more important than it is in the West. In other words, Africa and Central/South America.
So, yes, right now many people in the West consider Bitcoin a store-of-value, but when the local currencies go down the shitter, nobody likes them anymore. And that is the moment that Bitcoin becomes a Medium-of-Exchange.
These two are picked up from the “What would change my mind?” section.
“App stores explicitly protect non-KYC wallets (policy carve-outs).”
I think that this shows a total cuck attitude. If the App stores are not playing ball with the greatest innovation in the whole history of money, it's the App stores that become irrelevant. Not Bitcoin.
"Large enterprises settle supplier payments in BTC on-chain (not through stables)."
The same comment for this kind of stuff. I don’t know who the publisher of this blog is, but if he thought that the future of Bitcoin is somehow related into app stores and large enterprises playing ball, then I don’t think he ever understood why Bitcoin is so important.
Bitcoin is a grassroot phenomena. I also think that there is a lot of great stuff, like Nostr, that is going to accelerate Bitcoin adoption.
My last comment is this:
The whole planet has been captured since 1913. The psychopaths, who captured it, have caused two world wars and are on the brink of causing the third one so that they can move us into a “one world government”. And between these wars they have caused A LOT of pain for normal people.
Bitcoin is the lifeboat. The one and only lifeboat. It’s money, but it’s also a way of thinking and seeing the world. More and more people see it. And we Bitcoiners, who have seen the light, must push relentlessly so that the rest see it too.
This blogger, this Negative Nelly, can join us once he/she/they is ready.
