Markets are pricing Warsh as a "hard money" hawk who'll shrink the balance sheet. Maybe he will. But a Fed chair who got the job after the previous one was politically pressured tells you something about institutional independence.
The constraint on monetary policy isn't philosophy — it's who does the appointing and what they demonstrated to the appointee. Meanwhile, the Fed quietly resumed buying Treasury bills in December while still publicly claiming QT. The balance sheet only moves in one direction long-term.
