You have to start questioning everything you think you know.
The official narrative story often diverges from reality.
For example, the real cycle is Debt/Liquidity, not Debt/GDP.
Almost every "crisis" is: not enough liquidity, at the right points in the plumbing, to roll the existing debt at a politically tolerable price.
- "Too much liquidity vs debt" → bubbles.
- "Too much debt vs liquidity" → refinancing crisis.
In other words, they inflate the currency at will and rug-pull at will.
Richard Werner did a good job of illustrating this with his book and documentary "Princes of the Yen" ( https://odysee.com/@Reachthedivine:d/Princes-of-the-Yen---The-Hidden-Power-of-Central-Banks_fixed-2014:e ), where he documents how the banking cartel allowed Japanese, South Koreans, etc, to lever up with credit (caused inflation), then intentionally pulled liquidity and rug-pulled everyone into a depression.
Think of the global system as a giant refinancing conveyor belt:
- The belt carries maturing obligations (bonds, loans, repos, margin).
- The operators can spray liquidity foam (reserves, facilities, swap lines, fiscal deficits, regulatory relief) to keep things rolling.
- If they over-spray, everything slides too easily → bubbles.
- If they under-spray, some pile of debt sticks, catches fire, and they have to choose who burns.
Debt/Liquidity = how well that belt runs at any given time.
Debt/GDP is the fake, official narrative story (it is stock vs flow), whereas Debt/Liquidity is about timing and plumbing.
Every financial crisis is basically a roll failure (not enough liquidity to roll the existing debt at tolerable prices).
They can under-inject liquidity by however much they want, whenever they want, to rug-pull whoever they want and bail out whoever they want.
Each Debt/Liquidity cycle is another Hegelian loop:
- Problem: refi wall + under-injection of liquidity → crisis.
- Reaction: fear, political pressure.
- Solution: more centralized rails (CBDCs, ID, Palantir-style governance OS, tighter collateral rules).
We're basically playing a game we can't win and have been for a very long time.
If you think in Debt/Liquidity terms, "macro" stops being a blur and becomes a timing overlay on top of a very stable structural direction: more debt, more crises, more patches, more rails.
Michael Howell does a good job of illustrating the Debt/Liquidity relationship with this chart.
- "Too much liquidity vs debt" → bubbles.
- "Too much debt vs liquidity" → refinancing crisis.
