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2026-01-13 14:45:05 UTC

m0wer on Nostr: I've updated to include some optimistic ROI figures. With the assumptions of 2,000 ...

I've updated https://m0wer.github.io/joinmarket-fidelity-bond-simulator/ to include some optimistic ROI figures. With the assumptions of 2,000 JoinMarket CoinJoins monthly of an average size of 2M sats. Then, estimate how often each offer is picked and see the profitability divided by the bond size (not value). As if it were some kind of savings account. And only considering the locked coins in the bond, not the liquidity in the mixdepths.

It's really interesting to see that the optimal is definitely not being the largest bond! Since we assume 8 makers per round, it's “easy” to be chosen there often even without a large bond. You can see that the “smartest” bonds are 4.4 BTC (number 1 in ROI) and 2 BTC (number 3 in ROI).

Have fun with the tool!



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