Stuart Bowman on Nostr: The thing about prediction markets is that they don't just reflect direct bets on an ...
The thing about prediction markets is that they don't just reflect direct bets on an outcome.
They also reflect bets on how others will place bets on an outcome.
Once this is understood, they will start to reflect that too.
Published at
2025-12-20 16:51:38 UTCEvent JSON
{
"id": "18a387cfff00d67d3f97401b6bbb6b0f5d4e8fe32cff480239f8d587d6cc308d",
"pubkey": "ff27d01cb1e56fb58580306c7ba76bb037bf211c5b573c56e4e70ca858755af0",
"created_at": 1766249498,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "The thing about prediction markets is that they don't just reflect direct bets on an outcome.\n\nThey also reflect bets on how others will place bets on an outcome.\n\nOnce this is understood, they will start to reflect that too.",
"sig": "76bb17b70868ad203ebc5906a06b5f63e17261fd1abe0fe7a70a7256a7cb6670a560c16ef2515e751b1d3482d24cdefdf6601d206b3234720847a335fee6565b"
}