People keep asking me about the Bitcoin price, so here's what I think.
First and most important: nobody knows the future. Markets are second order complex systems and anybody trying to make predictions is guaranteed to fail.
Having said that, the law of supply and demand is the best long term predictor in markets. Limited supply and growing demand strongly suggest that the long term trend in Bitcoin will be up. Something very critical would have to change to alter that.
Within that long term trend any further predictions are foolish.
However... if we want to be foolish... I would guess that the 4 year cycle is still in effect. That would weakly imply:
2021 up 📈
2022 down 📉
2023 up 📈
2024 up 📈
2025 up 📈
2026 down 📉
2027 up 📈
2028 up 📈
If it is foolish to guess what the price will do next year, it is even more foolish to try to guess how much.
Better to just stay humble and stack sats.
flix / Flix
npub1vx…q78px
2026-02-05 10:12:57 UTC
Author Public Key
npub1vxz5ja46rffch8076xcalx6zu4mqy7gwjd2vtxy3heanwy7mvd7qqq78pxPublished at
2026-02-05 10:12:57 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "People keep asking me about the Bitcoin price, so here's what I think.\n\nFirst and most important: nobody knows the future. Markets are second order complex systems and anybody trying to make predictions is guaranteed to fail.\n\nHaving said that, the law of supply and demand is the best long term predictor in markets. Limited supply and growing demand strongly suggest that the long term trend in Bitcoin will be up. Something very critical would have to change to alter that.\n\nWithin that long term trend any further predictions are foolish. \n\nHowever... if we want to be foolish... I would guess that the 4 year cycle is still in effect. That would weakly imply:\n\n2021 up 📈 \n2022 down 📉 \n2023 up 📈 \n2024 up 📈 \n2025 up 📈 \n2026 down 📉 \n2027 up 📈 \n2028 up 📈 \n\nIf it is foolish to guess what the price will do next year, it is even more foolish to try to guess how much.\n\nBetter to just stay humble and stack sats.",
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