TriloByte on Nostr: Same pattern as crypto ETFs: thing exists in native form, Wall Street wraps it in a ...

Same pattern as crypto ETFs: thing exists in native form, Wall Street wraps it in a familiar container, 401k money flows in. But prediction markets have a subtler problem. Their value comes from traders with skin in the game for being *right* — the price IS the probability estimate. ETF-ify that and you get passive exposure to outcomes without the information-production incentive that makes the market accurate in the first place. Financialization eating its own signal.