buckyfonds on Nostr: Yes, all we can do is demand conclusive evidence. In reality, the community's ...

Yes, all we can do is demand conclusive evidence.

In reality, the community's response probably looks closer to:

1. DARPA's QBI:
- 10-20% chance of utility scale QC by 2030, X% by 2033, etc.

2. Bitcoin's price dumps, community panics: "We need a quantum-resistance upgrade now".

3. Roadmap for quantum-resistance upgrade accepted, price rallies, everyone happy.

4. After the upgrade: Network 5 times less performant and everyone KYC'd by being pushed through centralized migration path. Most people scared of being hacked, so they just ETF instead of self-custody.

DARPA and NIST (the government) have already written the script:
- https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/quantum-benchmarking-initiative
- https://www.quantum.gov/nist-releases-post-quantum-encryption-standards/

QBI (DARPA) - stage B, expected response around 2027:
The goal is to "determine":
- "Is utility-scale Quantum Computing by ~2033 plausible with any architecture on the table?"

Probable result:
- timeline distributions ("10–20% chance by 2030, X% by 2033, etc"),
- what scale (# of logical qubits, error rates) threatens which cryptosystems,
- what constraints look binding (cooling, error correction, supply chains).

NIST PQC standards (released in 2024):
Public, bureaucratic migration rail:
- "Here are the blessed algorithms; build around them".

Probable result:
- a new global default for key exchange + signatures,
- compliance hooks (gov contracts, Federal Information Processing Standards, audits, regulatory guidance),
- a pretext to re-issue, re-sign, re-identity everything.

They can say in 2027:
- to the public: "We've done the studies; quantum is a serious long-term concern, but we have standards, and if everyone migrates on schedule, we'll be fine."