If I were trading this I’d just focus on spreads. Usually when there is this much fear and operational preparedness going into a cold weather event, it ends up being a nothing-burger because everyone optimized their onsite load/gen to provide as much support to the grid and limit their risk. The roof could still come off this thing, and if I had to bet in one direction it would be lower than $600/MWh settled.
However, if I had to trade it I would only focus on point-to-point trades. Ain’t it fun! 🪫⚡️
