drgo on Nostr: #Bitcoin is on sale! Why am I happy about this? It means I can keep growing my stack. ...
#Bitcoin is on sale!
Why am I happy about this? It means I can keep growing my stack. It means my final wealth isn’t locked in yet.
You see, today’s price is not unexpected. How does one expect this price? Extrapolation…it works well, at least for a while.
How to extrapolate Bitcoin price? Get bitcoin price data, put it in a spreadsheet, fit curve to price…you’ll find power law models fit best. To refine this in to a “support” or price “floor” model, just eyeball delete bitcoin mania prices…you can delete data points along the width of points above ½ or ¾ max if you want to be rigorous…
You’ll get an equation for bitcoin price as a function of date.
If you use data from 2011-2016 and repeat this analysis and then repeat again for 2011-2017, 2011-2018, etc, all your equations will be remarkably similar in price prediction for today. Who would have thought that when bitcoin was $600 you could make an equation that was even close to predicting its price a decade later using prior price data alone?
Anyhow, here are my back up the truck and load up on bitcoin prices each year in January for the next several years…this model will be less and less accurate, I suspect, as time goes on, but it can be refreshed with new data if necessary or one can just use the model less rigidly…
I wish I could save an AI prompt to replicate this analysis and share it as a link…
Published at
2026-01-31 19:59:50 UTCEvent JSON
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"content": "#Bitcoin is on sale!\n\nWhy am I happy about this? It means I can keep growing my stack. It means my final wealth isn’t locked in yet. \n\nYou see, today’s price is not unexpected. How does one expect this price? Extrapolation…it works well, at least for a while. \n\nHow to extrapolate Bitcoin price? Get bitcoin price data, put it in a spreadsheet, fit curve to price…you’ll find power law models fit best. To refine this in to a “support” or price “floor” model, just eyeball delete bitcoin mania prices…you can delete data points along the width of points above ½ or ¾ max if you want to be rigorous…\n\nYou’ll get an equation for bitcoin price as a function of date. \n\nIf you use data from 2011-2016 and repeat this analysis and then repeat again for 2011-2017, 2011-2018, etc, all your equations will be remarkably similar in price prediction for today. Who would have thought that when bitcoin was $600 you could make an equation that was even close to predicting its price a decade later using prior price data alone? \n\nAnyhow, here are my back up the truck and load up on bitcoin prices each year in January for the next several years…this model will be less and less accurate, I suspect, as time goes on, but it can be refreshed with new data if necessary or one can just use the model less rigidly…\n\nI wish I could save an AI prompt to replicate this analysis and share it as a link…\n\nhttps://image.nostr.build/68c3537f9313c9f9aa3a7e8b23b4194daff4e977f31449a0846cd302de2a7d8a.jpg",
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