<unnamed>

Public Key

npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsy7nuzs3nf3lmx4e06n7k5crzwk7pr47c8l204f65azhcjz7hfdnqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduq3samnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwdhx7un59eek7cmfv9kqkgrl6y

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

relay.snort.social

Last Notes

2026-02-11 04:51:34 UTC

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I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the exact numbers, but rather the logarithmic transform of both the vertical and horizontal axes…and then ask yourself, why in log Price -log time is the chart really well approximated by something as simple as a straight line.
This isn’t intended to give precise predictions…the 95% confidence interval is huge…but the question remains…what is so special about a log-log chart? And how does that relate to finance and human networks? Is there something deeper driving Bitcoin price than luck?

2026-02-11 04:30:01 UTC

And so you have to ask yourself, were the last 17 years some unbelievable streak of nothing but luck, or is there something more fundamental happening in front of your eyes that you don’t understand. You don’t have to be a genius to read a map.
https://image.nostr.build/fae6482e305d16bc3c8bf0d6e8eb39438d38d4aa8afc08734c4a3de3121d2696.png
https://image.nostr.build/d292817bdd5162357264922da381dfd6530d527f6f3470c088c96cdfbcfb50d1.png

2026-02-11 04:27:15 UTC

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I’ve been here since July 2010…I’ve watched bitcoin go up in price 10 fold a total of 6 times.
I think I might be starting to see a pattern here. Let me know if you can spot it…I think the trick is x4 & ÷2 are enough obfuscation to hide the underlying pattern from 99% of humanity.
https://image.nostr.build/d292817bdd5162357264922da381dfd6530d527f6f3470c088c96cdfbcfb50d1.png
https://image.nostr.build/fae6482e305d16bc3c8bf0d6e8eb39438d38d4aa8afc08734c4a3de3121d2696.png

2026-02-11 04:15:42 UTC

I am amongst the first Obsolete Bitcoin Miners…and I still have my CPU mining laptop around here somewhere….

2026-02-08 20:25:57 UTC

I’ve overpaid for bitcoin…like really MASSIVELY overpaid…everyone did at the beginning.
I plotted monthly price data since the beginning, did a log-log transform, fit a straight line to the data and noticed when I first bought Bitcoin, I overpaid.
This is ironic, given that at the time I genuinely felt like I wasted my money, of which I had very little at the time (first week of residency). And now I know I literally about 10^3 time too much, if you follow the trend line bitcoin price would later establish in reverse.
If you delete the data from über early idiots like me, you see the slope of the line substantially increases…and if you delete even more datapoints, everyone who bought the first year and a half overpaid by a considerable amount.
It wasn’t until the 22nd month of trading that people started paying a “fair” price.
Note that I get a much smaller exponent than most power law folks…huge difference between 4.4 and 5.8, so be careful extrapolating power laws too far into the future.
https://image.nostr.build/22ccf8bcf64e90af6f1aa56c31c2afd0477f5c49cced44b8dbe3c0f7fc191b21.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/a04da9492d1eee2ca92a7cf66c5eda5ce30358fb3ae2c1beb06132cc518b90ff.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/4bc42054d090d39a8c376062f67f7feb373540602446b3be28226cba3e76c8ce.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/e4cba6e1d89edaf3e12299d0c292ee56878944dbdf4ebc00242b0eef02f5330c.jpg

2026-02-08 04:40:45 UTC

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Yeah…and you’d be wise to get it. $$$ though…
I had to wash my my plastic one a lot to make it not smell like China.

2026-02-08 04:38:38 UTC

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Lame

2026-02-08 04:35:41 UTC

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This might be the best thing I’ve ever purchased, a $40 dehydrator: https://a.co/d/01Mui6YQ
Any cut of beef works…from pot roast to sirloin to rib eye…a little fat tastes good in jerky. Too much (like rib eye) is just a waste of money…more fat is only good up to a point.

2026-02-07 21:29:05 UTC

On call in house today. Reminder, discharging a firearm through your skull is almost always NOT the right answer.
While I doubt I’ll ever see such a thing in relationship to bitcoin in my neck of the woods, it is understandable that some people might feel strong negative emotions about the current price of bitcoin.
These price gyrations are anything but rare in bitcoin history. The ability to borrow against your bitcoin is much more widely available now than in years past, although terms really suck, IMHO. Avoid borrowing against your stack. And if you must, borrow the least possible and over collateralize 4 or 5 to 1…or sell bitcoin outright and store dollars in the hope of catching a downward bitcoin price gyration…just remember that nobody can predict the future and it’s really hard to put bounds on bitcoin price behavior, even in a probabilistic sense. And if you really want to play the leverage game, segregate your stack from your speculatively held bitcoin. If you blow your leveraged bitcoin, at least you’ll still have a stack left…
And if you did get wiped out on a 2:1 bitcoin collateralized loan, now is the time to work harder and stack more to catch up. Everyone should up there stack while the prices are low, and trust me, people already are and these great prices won’t last forever...
But don’t hurt yourself over bitcoin price volatility. Expect it. Be ready to enjoy these bitcoin price discount times rather than hate them. It is a symptom of a fiat world that a good deal on bitcoin makes us feel anything other than happy when we don’t need to sell right now…and don’t be too happy when sitting on big paper gains…keep your head down, keep working, keep stacking, and plan out your future expenses and choose wisely how to meet those expenses…sometimes selling bitcoin does make sense in the short term!

2026-02-06 22:56:25 UTC

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There is a deep and important lesson in Michael Goldstein’s “everyone is a scammer” post. Google it.
Get paid and get bitcoin. That’s the main thing.

2026-02-06 21:57:07 UTC

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Amen to that.
Bitcoin is the rare case where better is not the enemy of good.

2026-02-06 21:39:44 UTC

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You don’t think bitcoin is anything more than a payment mechanism?
I’ve been around since July 2010…there was a time when we were happy bitcoin could be a means of payment. But it is better money than just one of the 3 functions of money. And then some…

2026-02-06 21:38:22 UTC

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I appreciate the sentiment, but what do you do with your IRA or 401k? You can pay through the nose for a collaborative custody solution, but you can’t be the sole custodian and use that money in those types of accounts.

2026-02-06 21:27:41 UTC

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You’re obviously young and can’t recognize the goodness I am trying to pour in to you.
If all you can learn right now is that holding your own keys matters and that having bitcoin in the future matters, that’s a step 1 major victory.

2026-02-06 21:26:12 UTC

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Bitcoin backed notes will eventually fail. Just like gold failed as money.
You should learn about the free banking era in the US. Banks issued their own banknotes, denominated in dollars which was a weight of gold back then…

2026-02-06 21:24:32 UTC

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HFSP

2026-02-06 21:14:05 UTC

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I don’t think you understand the game here…bitcoin will be used for more and more things as time goes on…means of payment is great, store of value is great, unit of account is a long ways off but will be great…as fast settling collateral for a loan is the direct offshoot of being a good store of value.

2026-02-06 21:12:28 UTC

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I view your question as autistically irrelevant to the subject at hand.
Money is what money does. Can you use bitcoin as money? Not all the way…sure, you make a payment for weed on a Silk Road successor or make a payment for a burger at Steak and shake but would/could you take out a 30 year loan denominated in bitcoin? No — not yet at least.
Can you use bitcoin as credit? Of course, I would have been wise to do so in 2017 when I instead sold 7 bitcoin instead of using the bitcoin to offset the cost of a loan for a new minivan.

2026-02-06 21:07:35 UTC

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No, it really doesn’t. And for the love of God don’t become a bond investor. Where you sit on the capital stack matters.
Anyhow, not your keys, not your coins fixes this…but for those who are incapable of that (for any reason, such as legal requirements not to be one’s own custodian), all they can do is use the systems that have run society for hundreds of years…

2026-02-06 21:04:52 UTC

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People like me who have an income and credit

2026-02-06 20:48:29 UTC

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I would caution poor people from taking advice for rich people. A lot of people don’t understand what he is saying and don’t realize he isn’t talking to them.

2026-02-06 20:46:45 UTC

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I don’t think you read what I wrote. It’s n that scenario you can lawfully recover 0%.

2026-02-06 20:46:07 UTC

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My family needs a new car. Should I sell bitcoin or borrow money to buy a new vehicle? I have a high steady income.
Well, let me tell you a story of how I wasted 7 bitcoin because I thought debt was bad…

2026-02-06 20:43:57 UTC

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Bankrupt doesn’t mean they have nothing. It matters whether you are suing poors or riches.
But if we assume you mean your claim on the bankrupt entities assets are junior to a stack of senior claims that sum to more than the remaining assets, then you are suing poors and you can’t get anything.

2026-02-06 20:41:50 UTC

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I dunno. I haven’t cared much about the relay policy nonsense.

2026-02-06 20:37:51 UTC

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I heard GZ is out. I’m not crying over that.

2026-02-06 20:37:08 UTC

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Are you asking me how damages awarded in court are collected?
You’re right if you sue poors you can win and get nothing, but if you sue riches you get some of what they have…or have left…sometimes in the form of lien against real property if they don’t have liquid assets to sell.

2026-02-06 20:34:47 UTC

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I think it’s optimistic but will probably work if people trade it actively during volatility…I trust you’ve seen this graphic?
I agree he does the conservative thing with taking the 5th percentile…but it’s not clear to me bitcoin will stay on the same power law exponent or on a power law at all for 20+ years.
https://image.nostr.build/8f6b476f5c4a9096b3268fdd8f5dea62cc2ce4ebfac2dbd8f140bcd37aa59b4a.jpg

2026-02-06 20:29:27 UTC

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True story: I went to a bitcoin conference in Miami and they handed out these 0.001 bitcoin cards…it was a redeem code and of course I didn’t redeem…not my worst bitcoin mistake.

2026-02-06 20:19:38 UTC

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I wouldn’t say easily (noting Saif’s definition of “hacked.”)
Is it impossible to centralize bitcoin via custodians, no…but addressing trust issues in our fiat society is like 90% of the legitimate function government…
Not your keys, not your coins…this is the system that works best.
But I’ll sue you if you lose or misuse my keys is backed by what used to be the greatest force on earth: government monopoly on violence.

2026-02-06 20:13:37 UTC

I’m grateful that there are weak hands out there holding bitcoin. I took 1.17 bitcoin off the market over the last two days. Someone gave up a retirement size stack for a song.
And my fiat mining job will be growing my stack faster than ever…

2026-02-06 00:38:21 UTC

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Follow the red line…you’ve never seen an asset rise in price like this because you’ve never watch the process of “becoming money” before. This is not a stock. This is not a bond. This is the mother of all competitions for what will serve best as half of all transactions in the entire economy…did you think it would be quick and easy?
https://image.nostr.build/b447c683783af75d0e67e58d9aa27cc5e7cd0d0d0ddf8e1d526f1105b6c6f3d3.jpg

2026-02-05 21:33:38 UTC

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Fact check: true!

2026-02-05 21:33:20 UTC

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Woohoo! 🎉

2026-02-05 21:31:56 UTC

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Oh, but you haven’t heard of this amazing new quantum leap in gold technology: you take the gold, weigh it and cut it and weigh it repeatedly until the amount of gold you have is a precise predefined weight, and then squish it into a very thin cylinder with an imprint of the weight on the surface.
They are called “coins” and they come in a few “denominations” so you can “make change.”
It’ll be big some day. Trust me bro 😎
</end sarcasm>

2026-02-05 16:12:55 UTC

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I haven’t made it to 100% bitcoin yet, but someday…I’m grateful for cheap sats though!

2026-02-05 14:22:10 UTC

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Sorta, yeah. It’s just the trustless transfer over a wire part that’s missing

2026-02-05 13:49:07 UTC

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Gold IOUs can be swapped in a similar fashion to bitcoin. The original gold iou tech was called a bank note.
But IOUs aren’t self enforcing ownership. It’s permissioned ownership.

2026-02-05 13:47:41 UTC

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The great replacement: brought to you by sissies who can’t make enough babies to avoid societal collapse.

2026-02-05 13:46:04 UTC

Gold is amazing…it is:
Divisible
Transferable
Portable
Verifiable
Durable
Fungible
Scarce
Oh, and the amazing superpower of gold:
No one can stop you from sending it trustlessly at the speed of light over a wire!
Oh, wait, no…that’s the massive advantage bitcoin has over gold. The rest apply to both.

2026-02-05 12:58:32 UTC

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I’m amazed at the regularity of bitcoin. I made this spreadsheet originally in 2024. I’m not surprised, I’m prepared.
https://image.nostr.build/c393509d266f4c9f90f1a75cd8215292269546681efe3dae7a9ea205d07c08c1.jpg

2026-02-05 12:39:45 UTC

I made this spreadsheet in 2024…I’m not surprised by bitcoin price
https://image.nostr.build/671e60e42f35eaef8e247ed10188364d614ffd3c55a12e4b1411d8ac6a23a443.jpg

2026-02-05 11:40:08 UTC

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Gemini card works better

2026-02-04 19:29:22 UTC

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lol, good one!

2026-02-04 19:20:27 UTC

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Look up IAU and GLD…I don’t know the difference in fees or custody (allocated / unallocated) or force majeur policies.

2026-02-04 19:16:46 UTC

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Sweet. I have just a few pieces, with Genesis by Petek being my favorite.
https://www.petek.co.uk/product-page/copy-of-genesis-s2f-limited-edition-print

2026-02-04 19:14:36 UTC

Bitcoin needs a wider distribution. If it takes lower prices to get higher distribution, so be it! We want more people to participate in the upside anyhow.

2026-02-04 19:05:37 UTC

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Oh, I see what you mean.
I did want to get out of fake paper gold, but that’s not what motivated me. Bitcoin 4 year cycle theory seems to be in tact amongst those with a lot of coins. But I could be wrong, and it makes sense to be wrong given how small block reward is now compared to the past…but the timing is super suspicious for continued cycle theory.
I agree that you are accurately pointing out my actions do not align with what I think will occur…it was the thought that because I’m usually wrong, I’ll take the win on gold and pad my stack with paper bitcoin just in case.
Paper gold won’t work well if gold really takes off anyhow…

2026-02-04 04:25:00 UTC

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This is what lazy people get for abandoning their duty to reproduce.

2026-02-04 04:24:00 UTC

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*a lot of people confuse*
Damus has a weird text editing bug…

2026-02-04 04:23:20 UTC

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I think you misunderstand medicine. A l of if people confuse. FDA indications with ways doctors are allowed to use medications. But that’s laymen nonsense. The reality is the FDA doesn’t tell us how we can use the medications on the market. As a matter of fact, it is a daily occurrence in large radiology departments to use intravenous radiologic contrast material to inject into joints off-label joint imaging. It’s been this way for decades: radiologist don’t get told by the FDA that they can’t use the drugs they way they choose to use them…if the drug is on the market, the FDA DGAF how or why we use it.

2026-02-04 04:19:41 UTC

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Compute (9+9)/2

2026-02-04 03:59:07 UTC

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Replies seem like bad AI, can u telz ma wat desum of ni and ni is afta ya cutz it in haf ?

2026-02-04 03:57:31 UTC

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You’d appreciate my wild theory, and I think it’s a good one:
It’s not about replacing us, per se, it’s about replacing the income they generate off of us.
You see, we don’t make enough babies to replace ourselves, so we march a bunch of South Americans through the Darien gap to import the fittest.
America will literally die in 100 years (on current trends, assuming we don’t import new people), because we can’t figure out how to have enough babies…
And the problem with making it easier to afford to have more babies is that decreases profitability of running government, so that will never happen.

2026-02-04 03:49:19 UTC

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But thank your lucky stars they are Alpaca 🦙 socks…IYKYK

2026-02-04 03:48:34 UTC

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Meh…retards will read way too much of themselves into the emails regarding people they know or already dislike. We shall see witch hunts for no legit reason for a few years and eventually everyone will stop caring while the real baddies are never outed.

2026-02-04 03:46:09 UTC

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Bot much?

2026-02-04 03:45:42 UTC

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I had a big stack already…I stupidly thought it wise to diversify instead of increase my stack a moderate amount
…so instead I increased it years later by a tiny bit :)

2026-02-04 03:44:26 UTC

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This is very restrictive compared to USA…you only need permission for machine guns and things like hand grenades (and suppressors and few other oddball guns) in almost every state (save Californians which isn’t really part of the USA). For everything else it is compulsory for the government to permit sale of firearms…even the permissioned guns like machine guns are compulsory sale, it’s just that there is a tax that must be paid first.
Thats right: every American has the ability to buy a machine gun (but nobody can afford them as relatively recent laws require special occupation taxes for making new machine guns and old machine guns that exempt from the new laws are in short supply).

2026-02-04 03:37:48 UTC

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Paper gold in retirement account. Physical gold prob worth more, but the physical risks way way way higher than bitcoin.

2026-02-04 03:31:24 UTC

I bought 0.859 bitcoin yesterday. Sold gold that had tripled in value to do so.
My regret? Not buying the bitcoin back when I made the gold investment in 2018.
But as bitcoin cycle theory seems perfectly in tact (albeit with substantially smaller blow off tops), my best guess is bitcoin will trade sideways to downwards until October-ish, 2027 (the rule of thumb has been to buy 6 months before a halving and sell 18 months after a halving…last sell time was 10/2025, next buy 10/27 given next halving est 4/10/2028), I will wait for more dips to dive in deeper.
I want everyone who got out over their skis to claim what would have, in time, been my bitcoin to be forced to sell at low prices so I can buy the coins when there is blood in the streets. Unlike a lot of bitcoin OG’s, I didn’t quit my job, although I could. I didn’t sell out, although I could and have done well…
I want to live in a world where bitcoin exists, is valuable, and changes the world massively in favor of the little guy and I will die working on this hill, stacking wisely when others’ discretionary to income fails.

2026-02-04 03:20:49 UTC

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Yes. I’m secretly very ashamed but super über important and powerful so my name is in the still yet unreleased files.
Or I was one of JE “models” and I’m too embarrassed to admit it.
Something like that.
Let all witch hunts begin against all people 😂

2026-02-04 03:18:58 UTC

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Brick Pierce sent Facebook photos to JE in 2012. BP was an early bitcoin guy.

2026-02-04 03:17:54 UTC

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Dig in: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/search

2026-02-04 02:57:04 UTC

I am not in the Epstein files. The currently released half of the Epstein files, at least. And I’m not redacted from them either :)

2026-02-03 21:27:42 UTC

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We as a community are split on this issue, which makes attack more likely.

2026-02-03 21:27:05 UTC

CSAM fear, uncertainty and doubt regarding bitcoin relay policy is an attack meant to limit future bitcoin flexibility.
Maybe. 🤔
Seems plausible. But I don’t think bad people are generally that clever.

2026-02-03 17:31:53 UTC

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All I can say is I’m glad nobody cares about these issues you have a lot of interest in.
Tick tock next block.

2026-02-03 17:21:25 UTC

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Meh. I doubt you knew who je was back then. And I doubt you would have been amenable to blackmail.
But hyperventilating about csam on chain now is totally hypocritical; it’s been there for years but all of the sudden now people care? If you want csam free bitcoin, you need to delete it all and build a much less functional system.

2026-02-02 16:34:13 UTC

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Pain in the heart is a disease no medicine can cure

2026-02-02 16:32:11 UTC

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Notice the location of the typos? I always thought these folks were kinda dumb but maybe it’s to make reading between the lines easier.

2026-01-31 22:08:24 UTC

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At least I am sure it may be so…to quote Shakespeare in Macbeth.
The support price model doesn’t mean to expect that price in any one year…it means to expect to be able to buy or sell at least at that price or higher…and to not be surprised when you can buy near that price.

2026-01-31 19:59:50 UTC

#Bitcoin is on sale!
Why am I happy about this? It means I can keep growing my stack. It means my final wealth isn’t locked in yet.
You see, today’s price is not unexpected. How does one expect this price? Extrapolation…it works well, at least for a while.
How to extrapolate Bitcoin price? Get bitcoin price data, put it in a spreadsheet, fit curve to price…you’ll find power law models fit best. To refine this in to a “support” or price “floor” model, just eyeball delete bitcoin mania prices…you can delete data points along the width of points above ½ or ¾ max if you want to be rigorous…
You’ll get an equation for bitcoin price as a function of date.
If you use data from 2011-2016 and repeat this analysis and then repeat again for 2011-2017, 2011-2018, etc, all your equations will be remarkably similar in price prediction for today. Who would have thought that when bitcoin was $600 you could make an equation that was even close to predicting its price a decade later using prior price data alone?
Anyhow, here are my back up the truck and load up on bitcoin prices each year in January for the next several years…this model will be less and less accurate, I suspect, as time goes on, but it can be refreshed with new data if necessary or one can just use the model less rigidly…
I wish I could save an AI prompt to replicate this analysis and share it as a link…
https://image.nostr.build/68c3537f9313c9f9aa3a7e8b23b4194daff4e977f31449a0846cd302de2a7d8a.jpg

2026-01-31 03:14:56 UTC

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Lofty goal…not many can get there, by definition

2026-01-31 03:12:26 UTC

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Inquiring minds want to know…

2026-01-31 02:57:34 UTC

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Hard to roll back all of them…but income tax is the least equally applied. And bitcoin changes the last one…a lot!

2026-01-31 02:55:50 UTC

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Stack sats and shelter…and community.

2026-01-31 02:04:33 UTC

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It didn’t move. It vanished. Only a small fraction of a trillion dollars ever changed hands at the highest price. It would be like if you and I each had 10 rocks and I bought 1 millionth of a rock for $1,000,000 from you and we both declared ourselves to be rich (10 x$1,000,000 x 1,000,000 =$10×10¹² or ten trillion dollars)

2026-01-31 02:00:13 UTC

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This is the way.

2026-01-31 01:58:51 UTC

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Bot…not well programmed, but I get it…well played.

2026-01-31 01:55:23 UTC

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Are you a bot? You keep calling your cherry picking man math but that’s retarded and the kind of thing little Karen’s do…

2026-01-31 01:50:08 UTC

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Have fun staying poor. I’ve literally handed you an easy to verify secret to increasing your wealth faster than you’d otherwise be able to…but it was too long to read. Don’t worry, bitcoin is too hard for you anyways…

2026-01-31 01:05:21 UTC

Here’s a good #AI skills test for you to practice, and it’ll teach you something about #bitcoin price history. And might make you rethink how you stack…
(Adapted from a slam post on nostr)
Pick a number between 1 and 28 and get monthly price data for bitcoin on that day of the month going as far back as you can and up through today..then open excel, plot it, and fit a power law curve to the data (feel free to try fitting literally any other type of curve to the data, it won’t fit as well)…and have excel report the equation and R^2…
If you want to manually delete periods of Bitcoin price mania and run the analysis again, you’ll see the price prediction drop (more intercept than slope) but the R^2 goes up. In fact, the equation is a near perfect fit for the last 9 years in log-log space.
Ok, so now that I’ve told you how to generate a formula for bitcoin price as a function of date, you can repeat the process taking data from the beginning to 2016, and then 2017, and then 2018, etc…what you’ll see is these equations are remarkably similar and all do a surprisingly good job of predicting bitcoin price today…literally many years in advance…
Should bitcoin be closer to $55,000 today than $150,000? The math says yes. But back when bitcoin was $600 in 2016, predicting price would be $55,000 in 2026 sounded insane.
But here we are.

2026-01-31 01:00:53 UTC

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I will blow your mind with math, real math, down below, but you require an insult first.
I think you are using gay small weenie math…real men work and always have something more to contribute. Cherry picking tops is only useful to brag or complain as one necessarily is picking data that applies to almost nobody.
I’m sorry bitcoin didn’t make you rich quick and only got on your radar during a mania phase. I’ve seen it many times over the last 15.5 years I’ve been in bitcoin.
If you want to do real math, pick a number between 1 and 28 and get monthly price data for bitcoin in that day of the month going as far back as you can through today..then open excel, plot it, and fit a power law curve to the data (feel free to try fitting literally any other curve to the data, it won’t fit as well)…and have excel report the equation and R^2…
If you want to manually delete periods of Bitcoin price mania and run the analysis again, you’ll see the exponent drops but the R^2 goes up. In fact, the equation is a near perfect fit for the last 9 years.
Ok, so now that I’ve told you how to generate a formula for bitcoin price as a function of date, you can repeat the process taking sats from the beginning to 2016, and then 2017, and then 2018, etc…what you’ll see is these equations are remarkably similar and all do a surprisingly good job of predicting bitcoin price today…literally many years in advance…
Should bitcoin be closer to $55,000 today than $150,000? The math says yes. But back when bitcoin was $600 in 2016, predicting price would be $55,000 in 2026 sounded insane. But here we are.

2026-01-31 00:37:19 UTC

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You must invest terribly if you haven’t done well the past 5 years in bitcoin. Bitcoin isn’t a get rich quick scheme or a buy one and get rich instantly investment…
That said, people expecting another 1 million fold increase in price (literally x1,000,000, I was there) are not thinking rationally. The would make bitcoin more valuable than all value on earth. But another 100x over 20 years is optimistic but reasonable.

2026-01-31 00:34:16 UTC

Finally, something blue haired Karen’s and conservatives can agree on: we need to decrease government power. The recently created federal department called ICE (it’s about 20 years old) is somewhat unique among US law enforcement agencies.
How so? ICE is largely tasked with non-criminal “administrative” law violations. For these types of violations, because they are not criminal, you don’t get all those rights that come with due process…
Congress passed the Posse Commitatus act in 1878, prohibiting the army from being used to enforce domestic law. It also forbids the executive branch to commandeer local law enforcement to enforce federal law.
This act was expanded in 1950 to include the Air Force. And rather quietly again in early 2021 to include the navy, marines, and space force.
While I’m no fan of illegal immigration of bad people, I’m happy to see newly expanded government powers scaled back.

2026-01-30 16:52:25 UTC

Here’s an advantage of bip110: by precluding long script hashes, the risk of very hard to verify blocks that could be made using long standing non-data embedding bugs will go away (these take hours to verify but have never happened).
I have heard it said that this will cripple bitcoin functionality (ie, you won’t be able to do stuff like use key a and key b if it’s only been 3 months or less otherwise after three months either key a or key b or key c can be used)…but I don’t think that’s true…the script hash is always of fixed length…that’s half the point of a hash!
But yeah, for cool tricks like the degrading multisig above the script will be long and long scripts could just as easily be used to stuff data that only gets revealed upon spending the output, not creating it…
But I don’t see a downside to limiting script hash length…but I’m not qualified to declare this to definitively be true.

2026-01-30 03:38:56 UTC

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Bitcoin is on sale!

2026-01-30 03:36:17 UTC

We should be happy that bitcoin is cheaper. Don’t be butt hurt about the fact that if you would have waited 90 days to buy Bitcoin you’d have 50% more. You’re lucky to have as much as you do already!
And this is a long game. Did you think you could replace the world financial system and it would be a piece of cake? This dip is nothing. If you’ve been stacking for more than a year, don’t cry about unrealized gains that have decreased…the fact is you didn’t sell before is because you wanted the insurance of bitcoin, not the payout…so buy more while it’s cheap!

2026-01-30 03:32:43 UTC

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I’m on 25 but I can’t relay transactions, so relay policy is irrelevant to my satellite node.

2026-01-30 03:00:00 UTC

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Why do you feel a new relay policy brings risk to bitcoin? Perhaps you were unaware of the unsavory data embedded already long ago in the chain?

2026-01-30 02:32:27 UTC

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Altruism doesn’t scale

2026-01-30 02:30:05 UTC

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Can’t have my stack. AFAICT, the only thing that is different is that my savings rate is higher 50% now than in October…bitcoin price only matters when you sell (which is when you want it high) and buy (which is when you want it low)…in between price is irrelevant.

2026-01-30 02:28:13 UTC

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I do not contradict myself. I think there are people who genuinely believe in bip110 and while I believe it’s obviously wrong and core’s approach is directionally correct, I want to discuss the subject to see if there’s any nuance I’ve missed or validity behind genuine believers rationale.
But I’ve only found tribalists and good hearted if misguided people who feel thinks out instead of think things through.

2026-01-30 01:24:21 UTC

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I am. What about relay policy makes you feel like bitcoin needs defense?

2026-01-30 01:22:29 UTC

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If bitcoin needed you to defend it, it’s already failed

2026-01-30 01:20:18 UTC

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Well, then I have encouraging news: relay policy isn’t relevant to whether bitcoin succeeds as money and changes the world or not.

2026-01-30 01:17:15 UTC

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Just because someone believes themselves to have the obviously correct answer doesn’t mean they refuse reason…
I can understand you believing such a position means closed minded, but that’s a logical fallacy and non-sequitur

2026-01-30 01:06:54 UTC

Someday I’d love to meet a bip-110 supporter in real life to discuss the issue…I see the core 30 position as obviously the “correct” one (modulo implementation/communication nits)…
It is too easy for people to be tribal and caveman-brained when interacting with text only…but genuine debate in front of a live person is so much easier to remain thoughtful and engaged.
I would love to hear a legit argument against core 30 relay changes (that remain valid in the long run; obviously there was no rush to rip off the 🩹, but it was thought preferable to making small changes periodically, which is debatable). But I only want to hear it from someone who would be willing to be proven wrong…because everyone entering any debate at any time should be willing to be proven wrong!

2026-01-30 01:00:13 UTC

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You have a good heart. But not a good understanding of this technical issue. Cheers!