trey
Trey

https://www.firebtc.io/about

VP, Sales, Unchained | Advisor to Cantilever | FIRE 🤝 Bitcoin | Banker turned bitcoiner: previously Truist, MetLife, Goldman Sachs, Deloitte

Helping bitcoiners achieve financial independence and FIRE practitioners understand bitcoin at https://www.firebtc.io/

Public Key

npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9

NIP-05 Address

[email protected]

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsdazzsq8av02435gd8jwc48s5dm3d8jj5p3760h867mzwrxvp00kqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mq8js22j

Publishing to

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1m6y9qq06c74trgs60ya320pgmhz6099grra5lw04akyuxvcz7lvq9ue2p9

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Last Notes

2026-02-06 13:30:32 UTC

FIRE gave me a way out—not just from work, but from a career without direction. After 12 years in Corporate America, I felt like a cog in a big wheel, a number in someone else's spreadsheet. The commute was tiresome, the office environment was stale, and the lack of flexibility left a lot to be desired. I felt stuck.
The FIRE approach is straightforward: build a savings and investment portfolio large enough to sustain your desired lifestyle without having to work. It's possible to implement a simple plan to create lasting wealth that doesn't require a radical change in your career or taking extraordinary risk.
The FIRE movement is about taking a fresh perspective and being intentional in crafting that plan for yourself to accelerate the timeline of reaching financial independence, thereby freeing yourself from being dependent on a paycheck.
Three core building blocks make it happen:
**1. Intentional spending and understanding expenses**
Understanding your expenses, both now and what you expect them to be in the future, is the first element to tackle. House, cars, groceries, taxes, gym memberships, kids' activities, vacations—all of this should be understood at a line-item level.
Be ruthlessly intentional about which expenses are necessary and which are wasteful. If an expense is wasteful, eliminate it immediately. If it's necessary, find ways to minimize it.
**2. Pay yourself first - maximize your savings rate**
No matter what you earn, you can always save some of it. Whether it's 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%, or more, that proportion of any money earned should be immediately moved to your savings portfolio. Automate this savings process and figure out how to live on the remaining amount.
Think of yourself as the CEO and CFO for your own personal finance company. Your primary objective is to maximize retained earnings. Any extra value saved today is payment to your future self ten-fold.
**3. Buy and hold good assets**
You can't just hold dollars (or other fiat currency), because doing so will make you poorer, not wealthier. The cost of goods and services you use every day continually gets more expensive over time due to a combination of monetary debasement and government intervention in the marketplace.
Housing, healthcare, education—categories we all must spend money on that continually get costlier. Because of this purchasing power erosion, you must store your wealth in something other than fiat currency.
Most FIRE practitioners choose the stock market and/or real estate. I choose bitcoin.
Buying good assets allows you to maintain, and even grow, your purchasing power over time. This savings portfolio will be used to sustain your retirement lifestyle, and it needs to grow large enough so that you won't run out of money when you are no longer working.
Earn, save, stack, repeat. When you understand your expenses, pay yourself first, and start stacking assets, you're well on your way to financial independence.
https://firebtc.io/p/fire-fundamentals

2026-02-05 17:30:49 UTC

Bitcoin is down A LOT between the time I wrote this on Monday and the time it was posted today 😅
https://www.firebtc.io/p/when-conviction-gets-tested

2026-02-05 13:03:10 UTC

Most FIRE practitioners default to VTI and call it a day. Stack index funds, wait 20 years, done.
But there's a problem with that approach. You're accepting whatever return the market gives you, which means accepting whatever timeline the market dictates.
I ran an 8-year backtest comparing VTI-only portfolios against portfolios with bitcoin allocations. $100/week split between VTI and BTC at different ratios: 0%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%.
The results are striking. A 100% BTC allocation grew the portfolio almost 7x larger than 100% VTI. Even a 25% BTC allocation more than doubled the portfolio size compared to VTI-only.
The multiplier effect: every 1% increase in BTC allocation added 9.61% to total returns. That's not a small difference. That's the difference between retiring at 45 vs 55.
The tradeoff? Volatility. Bitcoin dropped 84%, 72%, 55%, and 77% during four major drawdowns in that period. But here's what matters: if you're consistently stacking sats through those drawdowns, you're buying more when it's cheap.
Early in your FIRE journey, volatility is a feature, not a bug. Your goal is to stack as much as you can as fast as you can. Deep drawdowns just accelerate that process.
VTI is a solid choice for saving. Bitcoin is a better one. The question isn't whether to allocate—it's how much you're comfortable with.
https://firebtc.io/p/supercharge-your-fire-journey

2026-02-05 00:36:08 UTC

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It only gets access to what you let it. Of course, that could be easier said than done….

2026-02-05 00:33:09 UTC

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And we thought the bitcoin rabbit hole was deep!

2026-02-04 13:35:48 UTC

Financial independence without sovereignty is just math on a spreadsheet. You can hit 25x your annual expenses and still need permission to access your own wealth. That's not independence.
I joined Shawn Yeager on The Trust Revolution to talk about what happens when individuals stop asking permission to control their own money. We covered the infinite reserve illusion, why Bitcoin is more tangible than your bank balance, and how self-custody flips the power dynamic with financial advisors.
The FIRE community has the discipline to build wealth. But if you can't actually access it without gatekeepers, intermediaries, and "processing times," you're still dependent. Bitcoin closes that loop. No custodians. No counterparty risk. Just direct ownership of what you've built.
The conversation went places most FIRE discussions avoid. We talked about how the modern banking system doesn't run on fractional reserves anymore—the reserves are infinite because they'll just print them. We talked about tangibility—your bank balance is just a spot on an amorphous ledger you don't control, while Bitcoin keys are actual ownership. And we talked about sovereignty starting at home, scaling through example.
Watch the full conversation.
https://firebtc.io/p/icymi-bitcoin-is-critical-to-the
---

2026-02-03 13:11:00 UTC

Most personal finance gurus tell you to eliminate all debt. Pay off your mortgage. Live debt-free.
But they're ignoring how money actually works in a credit-based system.
Dollars are created from new debt and destroyed when debt is extinguished. This creates continuous expansion in the money supply, which means debasement of both existing debt and existing money.
The people who refinanced their mortgages at 3% in 2020 didn't just save on interest. They locked in a liability that became progressively cheaper to repay as inflation ran at 9%. Meanwhile, they freed up capital to invest in assets appreciating faster than their borrowing cost.
This is "speculative attack" — a concept Pierre Rochard wrote about in 2014. Borrow in a weak currency to buy a stronger asset. When inflation runs higher than your interest rate, your debt gets easier to pay off while your assets appreciate.
Consider two scenarios for buying a $500k house in 2020:
Scenario 1: Pay cash. You own a $640k house today.
Scenario 2: Put 20% down, take a 3% mortgage, invest the $400k you didn't spend. You own a $640k house PLUS whatever those investments returned.
I call this "Aikido finance" — using the momentum of the fiat system instead of fighting against it.
Yes, debt carries risk. You need stable income to cover payments. But if you have the discipline to pursue FIRE, you already have the discipline to manage strategic debt.
The fiat system runs on credit expansion and debasement. Like it or not, those with access to credit and an understanding of how to use it have a distinct advantage. You can ignore that reality or you can use it to reach financial independence faster.
https://firebtc.io/p/speculative-attack

2026-02-02 13:43:19 UTC

Most people understand compound interest intellectually but don't feel it. The first year, your investment grows by $10. You feel a ripple. After ten years, a wave. After thirty years, a tsunami.
FIRE isn't about striking it rich with one big win. It's about letting compound returns do the heavy lifting. Your $100 becomes $110, then $121, then $133. The gains build on themselves. The longer you let it ride, the faster it grows.
Time is your advantage. Starting early means you need to save less. Waiting means you fight friction. A 25-year-old saving $500/month beats a 35-year-old saving $1,000/month if the returns are equal.
Compounding works in reverse too. Credit card debt at 20% interest compounds against you. Outstanding balances become dangerous fast. The same force that builds wealth can crush you if you're on the wrong side of it.
Einstein called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it earns it. He who doesn't pays it. That's the difference between working until 65 and retiring at 40. Between hoping your money lasts and knowing it will.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/the-power-of-compounding

2026-02-01 13:26:57 UTC

FIRE people track their expenses to the penny. They stress over loyalty points and mortgage basis points. Bitcoiners obsess over MVRV ratios and exchange balances.
Both groups think more measurement equals more control.
But there's a trap here: mistaking information for insight and activity for progress.
I run my numbers every morning over coffee. Takes 10 minutes. I track where cash flows, what my portfolio is worth, what my trailing 12-month expenses look like. That's it.
The Pareto Principle applies: a small number of inputs drive most results. The rest is noise.
What gets measured gets managed. But most people manage the wrong things.
Track what matters. Simplify the rest. Trust your process.
Bitcoin gives you radical transparency—you can verify the monetary policy, audit the ledger, hold your own keys. But that transparency is for validating the system, not for predicting price movements.
Use measurement to clarify your path, not to shield yourself from uncertainty.
Direction over perfection.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/run-the-numbers
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2026-02-01 00:59:52 UTC

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Help my buddy Hal out!
#nevent1q…4v5g

2026-01-31 20:56:18 UTC

The personal finance world has convinced most people that a 6-12 month emergency fund in cash is the smartest financial move they can make.
It's not. It's fear-based advice that destroys wealth through opportunity cost.
Let's make it concrete: If your monthly expenses are $5k, conventional wisdom says stash $30k in a high-yield savings account earning 4%. Sounds safe. But inflation (M2 growth) runs roughly 7% per year. You're losing 3% annually in real purchasing power.
Over 10 years, that $30k at 4% barely keeps up with nominal inflation. Meanwhile, the same money in stocks (12% CAGR) grows to ~$93k. In bitcoin (59% CAGR)? It grows to ~$1.9M.
"But what if I lose my job?"
Fair question. So let's model it with probability: 5% annual job loss rate means roughly 40% chance of at least one loss event over a decade. You lose your job at year 5. Stocks are down 30%, bitcoin down 60%. You sell monthly to cover expenses for 6 months.
Even under those conditions, the expected value math STILL massively favors investing your liquidity.
Cash protects you from a 40% probability of crisis. Investing protects you from the 100% certainty of erosion.
The bigger your portfolio becomes, the less you need a separate emergency fund. Your liquidity becomes your safety net. Your growth becomes your protection. Financial independence isn't built by hoarding cash in fear—it's built by rejecting fear-based systems and replacing them with rational, self-sovereign ones.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/emergency-economics
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2026-01-30 17:44:06 UTC

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Eventually 😅

2026-01-30 16:19:58 UTC

Episode 1 of the new FIRE BTC podcast is live!
🎙️ Bitcoin, Career, and Building Wealth with Joe Burnett.
🔸Joe’s journey discovering BTC to working in the industry
🔸Building a life on a bitcoin standard
🔸Spending bitcoin, borrowing against it, and navigating relationships
Watch it here: https://youtu.be/VNdz1byuu-w?si=MK8NhVfv19SiAufW

2026-01-30 13:36:08 UTC

Bitcoin maxis love to invoke Laszlo's $700M pizza purchase as proof you should never spend bitcoin. But they're getting opportunity cost completely backward.
The common argument goes like this: "Don't spend bitcoin because it'll be worth $1M someday. Spend your dollars instead—they lose value anyway." Sounds plausible. It's also wrong.
A $100 expense costs you $100 regardless of whether you pay in BTC or cash. The opportunity cost is the spending itself, not the medium.
Here's what most people miss: You can spend bitcoin and immediately replace it with the cash you didn't spend. The "spend and replace" method achieves the same end result as just spending cash—your BTC stack stays intact.
The real question isn't which money to spend. It's whether the expense is necessary or makes your life meaningfully better. Everything else is waste that delays financial independence.
For FIRE practitioners, every expense cuts two ways at once: money spent could have been saved, and your FIRE number increases by 25x that expense under the 4% rule.
Stop obsessing over which currency to use. Start questioning whether you should be spending at all.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/spending-bitcoin
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2026-01-28 13:17:50 UTC

Gold was sound money for thousands of years. Fixed supply, global trust, no manipulation. But it had a fatal flaw: it was too slow and too seizeable.
When governments needed to override gold's constraints during wars, they just took it. Gold lives in vaults. Vaults can be raided.
Fiat solved gold's speed problem but broke its fairness. Suddenly money could move instantly, but only a few actors could create it. Central banks, commercial banks, governments. They printed first for themselves. The result: rampant expansion, distorted signals, and inequality baked into the system.
Fiat trained us to think short-term because saving gets punished through debasement. It enabled massive wars and debt cycles. Power centralized in ways that would've been impossible under sound money.
But fiat served a purpose. It was the bridge we needed to cross. It bought us time to build global trade, communication, and coordination systems. It got us to the digital age.
Now we have something better. Bitcoin restores gold's fixed supply and integrity while delivering fiat's speed. It's self-custodied, permissionless, anti-fragile. The more it's attacked, the stronger it becomes.
Bitcoin completes the arc. It doesn't erase the past. It transcends it.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/the-bridge-we-had-to-cross
---

2026-01-27 21:12:20 UTC

My friend Hal showed me his bank account. $270,000 sitting in cash. Earning 0.00% interest.
He's a smart guy with a successful career. But that money is melting away in real-time.
Cash is trash. The fiat monetary system requires continuous credit expansion to function. They keep printing more money, which pushes its value toward zero. You see this in rising costs for housing, education, healthcare — things that are hard to supply abundantly.
Holding cash means guaranteed losses.
Hal's got options:
• High-yield savings (3.5%-4.5%) — at least slows the bleeding
• Bitcoin yield account (River pays 3.8% in sats) — stack bitcoin while holding liquidity
• Stock index funds (VTI averages 8-10%) — liquid, low-maintenance
• Real estate — good for some, but illiquid and high-maintenance
• Bitcoin — highest growth potential if you can handle volatility
I told Hal what I'd do with $270k of toxic cash: turn it into bitcoin by the end of the next business day.
He probably shouldn't do that. Zero allocation, no conviction, can't handle the volatility yet.
But me? We're at an inflection point in bitcoin's adoption. Any day we could wake up to news that the US government or Meta bought a substantial amount, and the price doubles.
When that happens, I don't want cash burning a hole in my pocket.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/cash-is-trash
---

2026-01-27 16:21:52 UTC

I see FIRE folks adding international funds to their portfolios for "global exposure." They're paying extra fees and adding complexity while missing what's already there.
When you own VTI, you already own the world economy. Apple makes half its revenue overseas. Same with NVIDIA, Google, Meta. The S&P 500 isn't a collection of American companies—it's a collection of global businesses headquartered in America.
JL Collins and John Bogle were right about this. US stock funds give you global exposure without the extra risk and fees of international funds.
But there's something even better. Bitcoin is the only truly borderless asset. Not tied to any country or economy. No counterparty risk. No management fees eating your returns. Available 24/7 anywhere in the world. You can hold it directly without anyone's permission.
The FIRE community figured out that international funds are unnecessary complexity. Time to realize that bitcoin is the simplest global exposure of all.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/going-global
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2026-01-27 14:30:05 UTC

I see people spending 40 years working toward traditional retirement, missing the point entirely.
Your real job isn't your title. It's turning labor into compounding assets that replace your paycheck. The traditional path says work until 65, save in retirement accounts, hope it works out. The FIRE approach flips it: be ruthlessly intentional about spending, stack assets early, let compounding do the heavy lifting.
A focused 4-5 year stacking sprint can buy back a decade of your life. The work you do in those first years has exponentially more impact than anything you'll do later. Time-box it. Make it a team plan. Hit the sprint hard, build the compounding machine, then enjoy more of your income while you're young enough to use it.
And here's the piece most FIRE plans miss entirely: sovereignty. If you're relying exclusively on stocks and bonds, you're fully reliant on the financial system—holding IOUs gated by intermediaries. SVB was a wake-up call. Boardrooms realized they might not make payroll over a weekend.
Bitcoin gives you unilateral control. No intermediaries. No permission required. Even if you're early in the journey, hold some bitcoin you control directly alongside your stock portfolio.
Sovereignty is the missing pillar in traditional FIRE.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/icymi-leveraging-bitcoin-to-find

2026-01-23 12:45:53 UTC

The FIRE community's blind spot: over-allocating to tax-advantaged retirement accounts.
I see people locking 80% of their wealth in 401(k)s and IRAs they can't touch until 59½ without a 10% penalty plus income taxes. They're optimizing for tax efficiency while destroying optionality.
If you retire at 45 needing $60k/year, you need ~$900k in accessible funds just to survive until penalty-free withdrawals. Most FIRE pursuers don't have that balance.
These retirement account guardrails were designed for average workers who can't control their spending. If you have the discipline to pursue FIRE, you don't need the government limiting your access to your own money.
My approach: capture the employer match, then stack sats in self-custody. Accessible anytime. No age restrictions. No permission required.
You don't need guardrails. You need optionality.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/golden-retirement-handcuffs

2026-01-20 17:42:04 UTC

Hey @nprofile…54wh any issues reported with your LN URL? It seems to be down for me.

2026-01-17 21:06:43 UTC

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😅

2026-01-16 14:47:30 UTC

My kids looked at a $1 bill and a $100 bill side by side. Same paper. Same texture. Same material.
"Why is one worth more if they're exactly the same?"
It's the kind of question that exposes something adults have learned to ignore. We've accepted the premise so completely that we never question it anymore.
The answer—and what it reveals about the difference between fiat and bitcoin—is this week's FIRE BTC topic.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/eli-5

2026-01-08 13:54:28 UTC

Controversial take:
We need to step back from the emotional framing of the “housing affordability crisis” and look at it through a longer-term, structural lens.
Homeownership played an outsized role in wealth creation for prior generations, but it did so under a very specific set of conditions that no longer exist in the same way.
When the environment changes, it is a mistake to assume the same strategies must remain optimal.
Much of what people perceive as housing “outperformance” is actually the result of leverage and forced savings, not superior returns.
Over decades, homeowners inject large amounts of additional capital, accept illiquidity, and take on concentrated risk.
When compared honestly, housing succeeded less because it was a great asset and more because it bundled leverage, inflation protection, and lifestyle consumption into a single, default savings vehicle.
The decline in housing affordability does not automatically mean future generations are doomed to be poorer. The opportunity set has shifted.
Work is more flexible, capital requirements to build businesses are lower, and wealth creation is no longer as tightly coupled to owning physical property.
Homeownership still has real personal and lifestyle value, and for many people it will continue to make sense. The mistake is treating it as a financial inevitability or a moral benchmark.
The broader point is about adaptation: the rules have changed, and building wealth today requires clearer thinking, flexibility, and a willingness to move beyond models optimized for a different era.
I dive deeper into this topic and run the numbers in the most recent issue of FIRE BTC.
You can check it out here:
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/homeward-bound
Don’t forget to subscribe if you found this interesting. I hit your inbox each week with takes on personal finance and bitcoin.

2025-12-31 17:07:22 UTC

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IKR 😅

2025-12-31 16:18:45 UTC

2025 broke a lot of models.
Bitcoin made new ATHs… yet finished the year lower.
Stocks ripped. Gold surged. Bitcoin chopped.
A frustrating year for price—but an important one for thinking clearly about FIRE, risk, and assumptions.
The FIRE BTC year-end review is live.
🧵👇
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/2025-fire-btc-year-in-review

2025-12-12 18:52:27 UTC

Your brain runs on less power than a dim light bulb—about 20 watts.
Yet that tiny energy budget supports a level of cognition that megawatt-scale AI clusters still struggle to match.
This contrast reveals a fundamental design principle: The most capable systems are not the ones with the most resources. They are the ones with the best constraints.
We see this same divide in the monetary world:
🔸 Fiat Money behaves like a massive AI cluster. It relies on complexity, constant intervention, and brute force scale. It is expansion-driven, mirroring bureaucracy.
🔸 Bitcoin behaves like the human brain. It operates within hard limits, simple rules, and decentralized validation. It is constraint-driven, mirroring biology.
One design leads to noise and fragility. The other leads to signal and stability.
In my latest piece for FIRE BTC, I explore why nature’s most efficient systems reveal Bitcoin’s deepest strength—and why architecture matters more than energy consumption.
Read the full article here: https://firebtc.substack.com/p/brains-bitcoin-and-the-power-of-constraints

2025-12-05 15:37:23 UTC

Cutting $800/month erases $240,000 from your FIRE number and can add millions to your future stack when redirected into assets. Most people never see the leverage hiding in their expenses.
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/trim-and-turbocharge

2025-11-28 14:42:21 UTC

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@nprofile…p34a I assume you know I can’t give you tax advice, but I can point you to the resources for you to DYOR and understand our position and how we approach it:
https://help.unchained.com/what-is-loan-collateral-and-what-does-unchained-do-with-it
https://www.unchained.com/blog/ultimate-guide-bitcoin-loans?_gl=1*c3ao0f*_gcl_au*MTYwODcyMDQwMi4xNzYwNDc2MTQ2*_ga*NDkyNDgxNjkyLjE3NjA0NzYxNDY.*_ga_N2E2DZCQWE*czE3NjQzNDA4NTUkbzIxJGcxJHQxNzY0MzQwODY0JGo1MSRsMCRoNDU2MDc0NjQx

2025-11-13 20:54:00 UTC

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And yet you can’t control policy. All you can control is you.
I actually agree with you, but just recognize the world as it is, not how I want it to be.

2025-11-13 20:51:50 UTC

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Great. You do you.

2025-11-13 20:08:05 UTC

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It may be insane and retarded for it to exist, but that doesn’t mean you can’t benefit from it.
And apparently a 50 year mortgage is sinful usury, but a 30 year isn’t? So where’s the line then?

2025-11-13 20:06:16 UTC

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Will it lower your payment?

2025-11-13 19:54:05 UTC

Most people think a 50-year mortgage is insane. But when you actually run the numbers, the math tells a very different story.
Liquidity + compounding beats faster payoff—and the gap is bigger than you think.
Full breakdown here 👇
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/trumps-50-year-mortgage-play

2025-11-06 23:28:24 UTC

Elon Musk and me have combined pay packages over $1 trillion.
Wild.

2025-11-06 17:20:06 UTC

The economy isn’t just unequal — it’s split in two.
One side owns assets, leverages credit, and rides the wave of monetary expansion. The other works harder each year just to stand still.
That’s the K-shaped economy. And it’s not new — it’s the natural outcome of fiat money.
Your future doesn’t have to follow the lower arm.
Learn how to climb the upper one
👉 https://firebtc.substack.com/p/special-k

2025-11-02 23:16:50 UTC

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It’s definitely an option worth exploring if you’re self-employed

2025-11-02 19:13:07 UTC

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Sorry, not sure what you mean. IRAs are individual accounts by definition.
We do offer SEP IRAs, if that’s what you mean.
https://help.unchained.com/does-unchained-offer-sep-iras

2025-10-30 16:32:53 UTC

They say fortune favors the bold—but it’s deeper than that.
Every intentional action we take tilts the odds of our future. Over time, those small ripples compound into a new reality.
Bitcoin works in much the same way. It replaces uncertainty with certainty—giving us the foundation to act boldly toward financial independence.
This week’s FIRE BTC explores how bold action shapes your universe (and how Bitcoin amplifies it).
👉 Read the full post: https://firebtc.substack.com/p/favorable-fortunes

2025-10-16 19:26:36 UTC

Most people don’t have an “emergency fund.” They have a fear fund — cash that melts while inflation compounds against them.
In Emergency Economics, I break down why the “safe” choice of holding cash might be your biggest financial mistake — and how to build true resilience through rational, compounding assets instead of fear-based ones.
Read it here 👇
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/emergency-economics

2025-10-11 16:08:31 UTC

On a day like yesterday, there’s only one thing to do
https://blossom.primal.net/78f1b8abc1c0235a7db12bc72e42eb3ede15409eb76fc50327aeee4903351fbc.mp4

2025-10-09 17:44:52 UTC

Most people plan their finances FORWARD. But the Stoics would tell you to plan BACKWARD from death. It’s a bit morbid — but it can help you buy your life back, one year at a time.
💀 “Working Backward from Death” — new FIRE BTC drop.
👉 https://firebtc.substack.com/p/working-backward-from-death

2025-10-08 13:08:57 UTC

If you can…
👶 raise a child
🚘 drive a car
📖 read this post
…you can self-custody your bitcoin.

2025-10-07 16:08:22 UTC

One re-frame that can make your FIRE journey easier: Fund your last year first!
If you’re 40 and expect to live until age 95, you only need to save ~$5k at 5% real annual return to cover $80k of expenses.
That’s bite-sized savings.

2025-10-06 19:01:25 UTC

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The golf price was artificially fixed at $35/oz in 1971 but was $180 in 1974 when it was freely traded. That’s probably a better number to start from, which would imply more like 0.85 oz gold ~$3,300

2025-10-06 15:59:42 UTC

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EXACTLY

2025-10-06 15:22:41 UTC

My dad paid $156 for tuition for a semester of college in 1971 🤯
https://blossom.primal.net/08b244a57549e00f3077bb21efbdd2a908da22a617955c2f531baf33d7c75ec2.jpg

2025-10-06 00:29:49 UTC

New ATH last night, eh?
https://blossom.primal.net/7ab7c6695e32d50f786289eb147adc629c6f6164e81204ae8eab2165925acf22.jpg

2025-10-02 15:55:17 UTC

Would you take $1,000/week for life… or $1M upfront today?
One of those choices turns a lottery win into generational wealth. The other guarantees mediocrity.
👉 Full breakdown in my latest FIRE BTC post: https://firebtc.substack.com/p/the-most-depressing-lottery-win-ever

2025-10-01 23:24:14 UTC

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Tomato, tomahto

2025-10-01 23:17:05 UTC

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Yeah, I agree. Sounds like we’re saying the same thing

2025-10-01 22:40:53 UTC

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You should do both. DCA with new income. Lump sum when you come into larger amounts

2025-10-01 22:38:28 UTC

One thing I’ve found difficult with FIRE is learning how to spend the value I’ve saved.
You delay gratification for so long, then feel uneasy and nervous about spending it down.
Spending is a muscle that must be built, just like saving.

2025-10-01 19:45:35 UTC

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Not if you have the choice of lump sum!

2025-10-01 19:44:53 UTC

The historical 4-year cycle pattern is nearing its end date.
Will history repeat, or is the 4-year cycle dead?
Bitcoin surpassing $240k in Q4 would put the diminishing returns narrative to bed and keep the cycle alive.
From the recent @npub1qh5…eh9r report with Unchained:
https://blossom.primal.net/d057d7dc2bdb39b1a6a26bcf9f5f177962bac9944f873cd9f6be89ed3929e46e.jpg

2025-10-01 14:27:30 UTC

This week’s issue of FIRE BTC is staged.
I’m digging into the math behind this lady’s tragic lottery win.
Hit subscribe so you don’t miss it!
firebtc.substack.com/subscribe
https://blossom.primal.net/ba0b82bea7564c05c75ef06dce2430f0451b43ed3eb95544ea3bfe50a6fd8236.jpg

2025-10-01 12:49:58 UTC

FIRE folks pretend to be investors lol
https://blossom.primal.net/3727ba81da6e72827da205061fb5b10d7eede7be5fdc050ff7781342a1452345.jpg

2025-10-01 12:40:33 UTC

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Good point! I guess $ > BTC 🤷‍♂️

2025-10-01 12:31:35 UTC

“You can’t live in a bitcoin”
No shit! What the hell does that have to do with saving for the long-term???

2025-09-30 15:57:40 UTC

Rally, Chop, Rally, Chop, Rally, Chop...
@npub1qh5…eh9r : "These semi-regular periods of chopsolidation are an important signal that the Bitcoin market is maturing and evolving, as volatility capture strategies proliferate, and institutional interest becomes an increasingly dominant feature"
https://blossom.primal.net/9660526483ae07464d5ead9d1eac9da38b74fe682e50cf3cff5fbfbe0c8575f2.jpg

2025-09-30 01:01:32 UTC

We don’t need more houses.
We need to stop encouraging houses to be used as financial assets.
The money is broken.
Fix the money, fix the world.
https://blossom.primal.net/7b78642ca1254afaca1e7793d9085d0753134b76b32a115c5be41bb3a72b9303.jpg

2025-09-29 23:36:05 UTC

Diversification is a big word that means less bitcoin.

2025-09-29 17:38:26 UTC

Sell your real estate for bitcoin!
No more
- leaky roofs
- annoying tenants
- clogged toilets
…all while still underperforming 🫠
https://blossom.primal.net/4710b6451428007ee58c303dcd60b4cad636148bd0f4abc2f190f9909278014e.mov

2025-09-29 16:36:42 UTC

Trillions of dollars of wealth will transfer from the Baby Boomers to younger generations.
They are digitally native and much more likely to find bitcoin valuable.

2025-09-29 13:49:13 UTC

There has been a lot of chop and basing higher for bitcoin in 2025.
Don't forget: this thing can move VERY QUICKLY when it breaks free.
Cash on the sideline is risky.

2025-09-28 23:59:26 UTC

Have you stacked hard enough to feel comfortable when bitcoin makes a new all time high?

2025-09-28 21:37:46 UTC

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Wish I had a little more of that

2025-09-28 12:12:10 UTC

Remember when they lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and then started two 20-year wars?
https://blossom.primal.net/f0b281ccc005901acc941f22adb0a6078b1316741fe79126d6564e607d38cbeb.jpg

2025-09-28 12:03:35 UTC

Good morning. Bitcoin will be just fine.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.

2025-09-26 15:38:43 UTC

If we move into a regime of explicit yield curve control, you are definitely going to want to have a mortgage on your home.
Peace of mind with rapidly debasing debt.

2025-09-26 15:00:32 UTC

Imagine holding 40% of your portfolio in bonds ☠️🪦
https://blossom.primal.net/333fed9a7e1b8a569e0e103bda3fbfd7a7bb00f65b5172e49400e60debbe6ac7.jpg

2025-09-26 13:30:18 UTC

I’ve had a few podcast conversations recently where I dig into the pursuit of financial independence with bitcoin.
Check them out here:
https://substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://firebtc.substack.com/p/on-the-circuit

2025-09-24 19:42:42 UTC

The real “marshmallow test” today is for adults deciding between instant consumption in fiat or delayed gratification in bitcoin.

2025-09-23 18:07:34 UTC

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An American pastime!

2025-09-23 18:05:58 UTC

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True. Still don’t have one! 😭

2025-09-23 18:04:31 UTC

Chipped one in for birdie today. Is there a better thrill?

2025-09-22 21:12:20 UTC

“Invest” doesn’t mean what you think it does.
If you’re fine with owning VTSAX to save, and your whole approach to personal finance depends on its value increasing, dismissing bitcoin as “not an investment” because it has no cash flows makes zero sense.

2025-09-22 20:59:47 UTC

People assume using money means spending it.
In reality, the main use of money is holding it—keeping your options open.
Bitcoin is built for that.

2025-09-22 16:19:07 UTC

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I think we’re about to FO! 😉

2025-09-22 15:56:04 UTC

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Does not compute 🤖

2025-09-22 15:53:58 UTC

This is the most common argument I see from the Knots folks
https://blossom.primal.net/8d7935d690b40c531c9b961d3a8e70062ff0c1624f60445a8cb36fa0b38e6337.jpg

2025-09-22 15:00:23 UTC

Global debt keeps climbing.
Bitcoin’s supply stays fixed at 21 million.
All you need to know.

2025-09-21 22:52:14 UTC

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Ok great. I don’t disagree. But you are only chirping about this now, instead of two years ago when taproot was activated.
If that’s the main issue, why is nobody talking about it and only focusing on this op_return setting being changed?

2025-09-21 22:48:10 UTC

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Your argument rests on it being a legal liability to have CP on your node. Are you saying that SOME cp is OK and defensible but a lot of it is not Ok and indefensible?
Seems to me that it’s black or white. Either you have it on your node or not. And if that’s the case, then bitcoin is vulnerable to just a single instance.

2025-09-21 22:45:03 UTC

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Right now, “images” are stored on chain via inscriptions/ordinals. They are only technically limited by the block size limit of 4 mb. So, yes. As you stated in point one, this is already possible.
And I think Luke is stretching quite a bit here, making a distinction without a difference.

2025-09-21 22:31:59 UTC

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Yet they could do this right now through various other means, and apparently that’s not an issue for you. It’s only if they use this one path through Core v30, that will spell the end of bitcoin. Right?

2025-09-21 22:14:39 UTC

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Sure, governments who want to destroy bitcoin are just standing around frustrated right now, but as soon as this change happens, they will finally be able to do it.

2025-09-21 22:09:58 UTC

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You’re welcome!

2025-09-21 16:03:59 UTC

The best thing about the Core v Knots ordeal is more people running nodes, even if they don’t fully understand how it all works yet.

2025-09-21 15:35:33 UTC

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> They already bypass the mempool with services like slipstream and others.
Exactly.
The OP is simply pointing out that actors who are not concerned with cost (like nation states) but are motivated to destroy bitcoin will go to any length necessary to get their shit into a block, which will be stored on every node that doesn’t prune, Knots, Core, or otherwise.

2025-09-21 14:41:03 UTC

Non-economic actors who want to destroy bitcoin will gladly pay a 4x higher fee for OP_RETURN, but they’re too lazy to bypass the mempool altogether.
Make it make sense.

2025-09-19 18:24:29 UTC

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WOW thanks for sharing that. I was already thinking she could die before breaking even on the $1 million but that’s also a potential risk I hadn’t thought of

2025-09-19 18:19:08 UTC

This is the most depressing thing I think I've seen on X.
The state of personal finance education is absolutely rekt 🤦‍♂️
https://blossom.primal.net/e8429767471692be4f3e340397fd4a815f3251e90546c432f8942f75ea44bc19.jpg

2025-09-09 14:01:49 UTC

Why are you investing when you can just SAVE and get wealthy??
https://blossom.primal.net/e516f385ace0e34973f0bcdd41e0fb1b9f90328c1f3202caf07f3ba836e699a2.jpg

2025-09-01 14:04:55 UTC

Downloaded Bitchat at a party on Saturday night with a buddy. Two new nodes are up and running!

2025-08-28 15:25:48 UTC

🚨 Harvard Economist Humbled 🚨
In 2018, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff said bitcoin was more likely to hit $100 than $100k.
Fast forward: bitcoin didn’t crash—it ripped through $100k and has stayed there for 100+ days. Rogoff was off by three orders of magnitude. His excuse now? The world is just too dumb. 🤡
His argument rested on three pillars:
1️⃣ Mostly for criminals
2️⃣ Governments would regulate it away
3️⃣ No utility without illicit use
All wrong. Governments didn’t ban bitcoin—they’re adopting it. Corporations, sovereigns, and millions of individuals hold it. Even Harvard just disclosed a $100M+ allocation to BlackRock’s ETF $IBIT. 🫠
Rogoff also called bitcoin’s role in the $20T underground economy a flaw. It’s actually proof of concept: it works when you need it most—remittances, broken currencies, censorship, sanctions. If it works there, it works everywhere.
So why do Ivy League elites keep missing it? Their worldview depends on trusting the system. They can’t imagine it failing. But bitcoin doesn’t care about diplomas or credentials. Reality is the ultimate rebuttal.
Even Harvard’s endowment has already voted—with $100M+.
👉 I dive deeper into this in FIRE BTC #44—covering why elites dismiss bitcoin, Jesse Myers’ “yuppie elite” framework, and why the underground economy is validation, not a bug.
📩 Read it & subscribe free here:
https://firebtc.substack.com/p/harvard-humbled

2025-08-25 13:31:06 UTC

IBIT is BlackRock’s most profitable ETF ever, and Uncle Larry Fink LOVES it.
BlackRock makes more money when bitcoin pumps, and you’re bearish, anon?!?
https://blossom.primal.net/2c5c8ffbd8e4a3502d4e0b2247a1f7b27168c733c8924eadb0c0e61b3ca08648.jpg

2025-08-24 22:37:17 UTC

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Ready
https://blossom.primal.net/555976c95921c6ded33b86454e685eeb18de4ab458a42c4d43acac13a4fc61be.jpg
#nevent1q…6zg3

2025-08-24 22:17:20 UTC

Almost ready
https://blossom.primal.net/8a456abfe02aa99d0d30b1c9c15b070f1da9ad64db3a831d1db54866e7d8379d.jpg

2025-08-24 20:46:51 UTC

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The big wire houses are coming in Q3/Q4

2025-08-24 15:46:07 UTC

3.25 BTC coming my way any day now
https://blossom.primal.net/375f10373b473a0232edb7cf22c05ab1fab4cd2dd587ffeff5d39cd259dcd504.jpg