FTB

Full Time #Bitcoin: Node operator, miner, BTC only angel investor/VC, optech reader, sat stacker, freak, dirtbag, pleb, resident TSLA shill, stackchain 593 1754

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npub1h8z77d0mqx8nreltfxzhw5vgv2d2yvfvn7p8nz6ugtafk9ly9tas4zta38

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nprofile1qqstn300xhasrre3ul45npth2xyx9x4zxykflqne3dwy975mzljz47cpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucm4wfex2mn59en8j6gprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgjwaehxw309ahkvenrdpskjm3wwp6kyqgmwaehxw309aex2mrp0yhxy6t5vdhkjmnsv9exktnrdaksz8rhwden5te0dehhxarj9ekh2arfdeuhwctvd3jhgtnrdaks3vhs6f

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Last Notes

2026-02-09 13:47:02 UTC

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I think it’s probably over after that. Too big of a V in the chart, but we’ll see!

2026-02-05 19:46:05 UTC

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100%

2026-02-05 16:42:02 UTC

I'm now completely convinced that this entire drawdown - which may have been started by API problems on Binance, but if it hadn't have been that it would have been something else - is all about liquidating bitcoin backed loans.
It's a terrible incentive sitting out there in the market. A HUGE pot of bitcoin that is suddenly up for grabs at LOWER prices. And this world is full of rich people who want our coins.
If you needed liquidity above $100k you had two options, sell or take a loan out. Of course there were lots of companies eager to sell you the dream of getting liquidity without selling your bitcoin, unfortunately that's all that is, a dream.
We've been sold a lie that bitcoin is the best possible collateral because it's liquid 24/7! Well sure that makes it amazing...FOR THE LENDER! For the borrower it just puts a target on your back.
You thought you were a hardcore hodler, but you just posted your coins for sale at $58k! And guess what? There are buyers who want that deal!
We're going to go down until every reasonably accessible bitcoin being held as collateral is freed up and sold to someone that ain't one of us! If you avoided taking out a loan, congrats! If somehow you have some dry powder now, amazing, you deserve these cheap sats.
If you're looking at liquidation even anywhere in the 50's, I'd consider cutting your losses and closing your loan with collateral. If you can get your margin call price into the 40's I would hope you would be safe, but who knows. There are no rules in a truly free market.

2025-06-06 19:58:27 UTC

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And here’s a more bullish version:
1st I asked Grok to figure out the average daily return for Metaplanet since they adopted the bitcoin treasury strategy, this came out to just over 1.4% per day.
2nd I asked Grok to assume that trend would continue for the next 100 trading days. Stock price at the end of the 100 days assuming trend continues: 6961 JPY or $48.03
3rd assume they issue the 555M shares linearly over those 100 trading days (5.55M shares per day)
4th assume BTC increases from $105k to $150k linearly over those 100 trading days.
5th give me the total BTC they would own at the end of the 100 trading days: 133,188 BTC
6th tell me what date 100 TSE trading days is from today: October 1st or 2nd
7th give me a new mNAV/share price chart:
https://blossom.primal.net/2334fd9f1130e75bf3c8c52c66d285ff504523f397c6cce3cf543b2e91d5af16.jpg

2025-06-06 19:57:18 UTC

Some Metaplanet analysis of the plan they announced today.
Here’s the “conservative” version:
759M shares already issued, another 555M on the way, so ~73% dilution (per page 7 of the deck released today). Likely all issued in less than 100 trading days (per page 20 - assuming a modest increase in volume). At an average purchase price of $115k per BTC that'll give them an additional ~57k BTC at the current stock price of ~$11.70 for a total of around 66k BTC worth about $7.6B.
With a new total of 1.3B shares outstanding here's a chart showing the stock price at various mNAV's:
https://blossom.primal.net/dc66ccb29e792605f523407fe888fb896e32f2683f984bf31cc67a22728a018a.jpg

2025-06-05 18:25:08 UTC

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Here's something interesting.
I was trying to steel man my argument in favor of $STRK, and my belief that there will be near zero incentive to convert and I came across an interesting argument. $STRK doesn't have an options market. So if you could imagine a future where $MSTR is $10k per share, and $STRK is $1k + a small kicker for the 0.8% yield and liquidation preference, someone sitting on a large position of $STRK that's basically yielding nothing could convert to $MSTR and sell covered calls against the position for a much higher effective yield.
So that begs the question: can you launch an options market on top of a preferred stock. Answer according to Grok: yes, but it's so far been very rarely done.
So if they don't do it, I do think you'll have a conversion bleed over time of people willing to give up the liquidation preference (which won't be worth much if @Strategy is the largest company on earth anyway), in favor of the higher yield that selling covered calls can offer. And by that point I think @Strategy would love for people to convert, so maybe they're incentivized to not launch the options market. Something to think about!
#nevent1q…dtw9

2025-06-05 03:53:09 UTC

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And also that means my effective yield calculation is wrong. $8 per share on $69.2 is 11.56% not the 8% I listed in the original post! 🤦‍♂️

2025-06-05 01:36:05 UTC

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Elon and STRK
All I could think about today.

2025-06-05 01:33:11 UTC

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However being back on here I’ve zapped more than I’ve been zapped, so not sure this is a very effective scam!

2025-06-05 01:30:10 UTC

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I’m just reposting my tweets to get some zaps! Everyone’s a scammer

2025-06-05 01:16:06 UTC

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$69.2 not $99.2 in paragraph 3, apologies!

2025-06-05 01:02:32 UTC

A few thoughts about $STRK, obvious to some, but I know a lot of people don't follow this so closely and I think it's potentially a very valuable tool in the bitcoiner toolkit.
$STRK pays an $8 qualified dividend per share per year. $STRK can be converted 10:1 into $MSTR when $MSTR is over $1000 per share. At that point the convertibility is therefore worth $100. With $MSTR at $2000 the convertibility is worth $200, etc.
At the moment $STRK is priced at $107 and $MSTR at $378. IMO this means the conversion is priced at $37.8 and the remaining $99.2 is based on the $8 per share yield (effectively an 8% yield).
As $MSTR goes up well over $1000, $STRK will trade in lockstep with $MSTR. AKA as $MSTR goes from $2500 to $5000 $STRK will go from $250 to $500 + a small premium for the $8 per share coupon and the fact that $STRK is higher in the capital stack of @Strategy than $MSTR.
If $BTC does a 5x to $500k you could imagine that $MSTR might do a ~10x to $4000 and in that case $STRK would do a 4x to $400 (plus the aforementioned premium). As $STRK goes up it still maintains its $8/share qualified dividend, but that equates to an effectively lower yield of 2% in the $400 example. So the portion of $STRK that's priced based on it's yield will go down as $MSTR goes up.
So in however long it takes $BTC to go to $500k would you rather get a 5x with $BTC and 0 counterparty risk, a 4x with $STRK and an $8/share coupon (and counterparty risk), or a 10x with $MSTR and no coupon and counterparty risk. Also keep in mind that once $MSTR is over $1000, $STRK's performance should match $MSTR's (aka outperform bitcoin's), but the yield will be much lower by then. That's my outlook, do with it as you will, No recommendations here, not financial advice, just some thoughts.

2025-06-05 01:01:51 UTC

Nothing Stops This Train?
Don't Trust, Verify
Elon Musk in 3 acts.
Act 1:
In 2021 Elon tried to appease the Democrats by paying the largest tax bill of all time - quite a bit more than he actually needed to pay. He verified that you could not tax your way out of the overwhelming debt problem.
Act 2:
In 2024/25 Elon tried to appease the Republicans by campaigning for Trump, forming DOGE, and suggesting a narrow possible path where we could cut our way out of the debt problem. He verified that the right only gives lip service to fiscal conservatism.
Act 3:
Elon has been well aware of libertarian/bitcoiner arguments for a long time. But he needed to verify that in fact the system could not be fixed from the inside, he has now done that. I believe Elon will now turn towards the only actual solution to the problem - Bitcoin.

2024-11-26 22:29:22 UTC

Regarding the QQQ snapshot on Friday, it appears unfortunately that Saylor fucked up, and now they're going to go in with a much lower market cap than they could have. Of course this is all in hindsight and there were a lot of unknowable things that happened between last Monday and now so I'm not throwing stones, it'll all be fine, but it could have been better!
After last Mondays ATM announcement it was pretty clear to see he was going to keep pushing hard at least through to this snapshot if not for as long as the bull market rages on. We had two consecutive weeks of increasing ATM usage both at about 7% of the weekly trading volume. So going into this Monday I and many others saw that the volume last week was insane, and we imagined that it was certainly possible that another 7% of that volume was ATM usage. For whatever reason it seems that wasn't the case. In fact as long as their liquidity keeps rising they should be able to keep increasing the ATM's maybe linearly...or maybe parabolically.
My best guess is they were waiting until Friday to really hit the ATM hard in preparation for weekend stacking. Instead they were caught off guard by the Citron hit piece which combined with the known convert shorting really turned the momentum 180 degrees. At that point they either hit the ATM to try and get what they still could, or more likely they had done a couple billion before then and we're saving the remaining 5 for Thursday/Friday which then got cancelled with the momentum shift. I still believe the 100k coin buy was the plan, but the plan got curtailed.
So now we're about 37% off the highs and the snapshot is in 1.5 trading days, and obviously momentum is bearish as hell. So my bear case is they'll be lucky to close Friday above $300/share. I guess my base case is we stay around here, maybe creep up to $375. But there is still a bull case...
What could they do to try and shift momentum in a hurry in time for Friday? Well barring some major bullish announcement outside of their control all they can do is announce another buy! Volume was still very high over the last two days, and I could easily see Saylor continuing to tap the ATM hard and making a surprise announcement tomorrow morning and/or Friday morning. Even if it doesn't cause the momentum to shift it'll still likely increase the market cap by increasing the share count (as long as we stay flat or even go down less than the issuance). So almost 50M shares have traded in the last two days, I'd say the bull case is 7% of that sold by Saylor (3.5M shares), maybe at an average price of $400 is $1.4B or about 15,000 bitcoin. Not bad for a midweek smash buy.
At the end of the day their strategy does not rely on getting into any indexes. It's just extra fuel on the fire. More fuel, bigger fire, but this sucker is burning bright no matter what.
Anyway, I feel somewhat compelled to bridge the bitcoiner and MSTR worlds, which used to be one and the same, but very much no longer are. Hope someone got something out of this.
Disclosure: LONG AF

2024-11-26 02:11:45 UTC

$MSTR is not a Ponzi, fiat is the ponzi, MicroStrategy is just going to make this obvious to the rest of the world. Imagine the bewilderment of the world when they’re the largest company on earth and all they do is keep buying bitcoin!

2024-11-24 02:21:06 UTC

I do believe we have entered the so called suddenly phase. What’s changed, well believe it or not, it’s not the ETF’s, or the options on top of them. It’s not the red wave, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or the supposed nation state announcement happening at the Bitcoin Mena conference. All of that is insanely bullish and absolutely fuel on the fire. But we’re in the suddenly phase because of MicroStrategy.
If you’ve been following $MSTR as closely as I and others in the MSTR True North community have this won’t be news to you, but I know many of my humble sat stacking pleb, freak, and dirtbag friends don’t realize that the MicroStrategy strategy has evolved and Saylor has pushed the pedal straight through the floorboard. The past 4 years he’s been building a flywheel, and now it’s finally spinning.
If you want a full breakdown I can’t recommend listening to Saylor’s presentation during the most recent earnings call enough, he put all the cards on the table. Laid bare everything (and more) that the MSTR community had pieced together over the past months.
I’ll try and keep it simple, but the 21/21 plan was the starting gun, it was the announcement that there were no longer any training wheels on and that the flywheel was spinning up. Since then the company has issued 7% of the weekly trading volume via ATM offerings each week. The more liquidity the stock is trading + the more the stock goes up = the more $ that 7% has gotten them = the larger their bitcoin purchases have been. Now this has only happened for two weeks so far, but this past week they were the most liquid stock in the entire stock market. We’ll find out likely on Monday or Tuesday if he’s made it 3 in a row. My guess is it’s highly likely and if so we’ll see a ~100,000 bitcoin buy probably announced on Monday morning. 70 billion funded from ATM sales and 30 billion from convertible debt. It could be 200,000 next week and 400,000 the week after that. Higher stock price = more liquidity = more ATM sales = more bitcoin = higher stock price = more liquidity….get it? There are not nearly enough bitcoin available below $100k to keep this up. Things are accelerating extremely rapidly. This supposed sell wall is an ant hill in the face of the kind of buying MSTR is doing.
This is the main gist of the story but if you’d like to dive deeper there’s plenty more to it. Upcoming index inclusions (nitrous in the flywheels engine), convertible debt, other future debt instruments. It all points to an undeniable reality. MicroStrategy is now single handedly forcing the suddenly phase (aka hyperbitcoinization) to begin. Add on all of the other massively bullish catalysts on the horizon and it’s quite clear, DON’T SELL YOUR BITCOIN!

2024-10-31 00:43:29 UTC

Every single one of you needs to watch the MSTR earnings call and pay attention to it very carefully. Please.

2024-09-18 03:35:47 UTC

Does ifixit have repair guides for pagers? Asking for a friend.
The next teardown is going to be 🔥!

2024-09-17 03:59:54 UTC

I’ll take a shitcoiner over a nocoiner any day.

2024-09-08 17:29:41 UTC

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I miss the philosoraptor

2024-09-08 00:45:26 UTC

Might not have quite been true when I first posted this, but feels true now. Better early than late!
#note1kha…yfag

2024-09-07 22:46:33 UTC

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https://m.primal.net/KinF.jpg
https://m.primal.net/KinG.png

2024-09-07 15:30:58 UTC

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On Twitter I’m a permabull, always have been, always will be. And generally that is what I actually believe deep down.
But here in Nostr I feel like I can be a little more nuanced. The bullishness never left, it was more like just sharing some side effects/inner thoughts that accompany the bullishness. Sounds stupid writing it out, but whatever. It’s more just an acknowledgment that hodling is a hard road, and carries a mental burden. It’s still without a doubt the right thing to do and the only path.

2024-09-07 15:02:34 UTC

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Lol, we all have our moments. Don’t worry I ain’t never gonna stop stacking sats

2024-09-07 14:59:25 UTC

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Faces have not been melted since 2017.

2024-09-06 20:28:53 UTC

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Found myself in an odd mood earlier, and felt like sharing. Have received many nice messages since. 10/10, would post again.

2024-09-06 16:19:49 UTC

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Love this, thanks for sharing

2024-09-06 15:47:12 UTC

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https://m.primal.net/KgwL.png

2024-09-06 15:39:37 UTC

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100%

2024-09-06 15:38:55 UTC

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Best I can do is 33 more years.
I mean of course I’m never selling. And you’re right, particularly about the travel, my kids hate traveling.
The home, on some land, living a pretty different homesteadesque lifestyle is probably what gets to me more. Because that I see as an improvement to daily life. But that’s in my head, not theirs, they’re very happy right where we are because it’s all they know. Thanks buddy.

2024-09-06 15:33:11 UTC

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Certainly the right answer, and to some extent I definitely do think of it that way, but impossible (at least for me) to not also see the investment case. Something to work on.

2024-09-06 15:25:31 UTC

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I'm nothing if not self aware for whatever that's worth.

2024-09-06 15:14:27 UTC

This is a rough cycle. Mentally as far as I'm concerned we haven't had a a bull market since 2017. 7 years of meaningless chop ....as always there's light at the end of the tunnel, but just when I think we're reaching the end, we round another corner.
Not sure if other hodlers are like me, but I find it difficult to live in the moment. I do my best, but it's almost as if my life is on hold until we have a raging bull market. There are places I want to travel, a home I want to build, but instead I'm stacking and waiting, and the years are going by.
My first child was born around the last bull market, I've spent the majority of their life obsessed with bitcoin, stacking sats, and waiting for our "real life" to start. I still think I've been a good husband and father, but I know I could be better. Unable to ever fully be present, that nagging hope of a better future always in the back of my mind.
As bitcoin cascades down today in yet another liquidation wick, I can't help but reflect on the past. Perhaps we're all destined to be Moses, wandering the desert for 40 years, the imperfect saviors of our individual tribes. We'll be remembered, but only our children will ever reach the promise land. Could be worse I suppose. I still don't think that's very likely, I think we very well might be rounding that final corner of the tunnel, but I'm trying to come to terms with the fact that that might not be true. Perhaps there's another 33 years of wandering.

2024-09-06 14:08:05 UTC

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I'm not sure that's right. I believe my screenshot is the most recent info we have. I think the Starlink shutdown was fake news. Not 100% sure though.

2024-09-05 23:09:09 UTC

@npub1qny…95gx
https://m.primal.net/KgBt.jpg

2024-08-29 12:47:44 UTC

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I’m 99.5% buy and hodl long term in cold storage. 0.5% gay options trader.

2024-08-29 12:40:29 UTC

Just a reminder, your dumbass going leveraged long literally causes the price to go down. This directly delays hyperbitcoinization, causing unnecessary human suffering, thus is morally bankrupt.
If you must gamble on the bitcoin price use something correlated like MSTR options. Getting rekt on those only affects you.

2024-08-29 00:52:40 UTC

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It’s complete insanity, definitely something wrong with me, but doctors have been useless.

2024-08-28 01:53:57 UTC

Almost choked to death for like the 5th time earlier today. Fuckin hell, chew your food friends (also I have a narrow esophagus I think). Grateful to be here 🧡

2024-08-28 01:46:42 UTC

I apologize for not respecting 58k gang. Clearly more to it than I realized.

2024-08-14 05:08:52 UTC

Several years ago I bet @npub1qny…95gx @npub1qqq…ntu2 and @npub1jkm…crvd that there would be a full node running on Mars by the end of the decade. This has given me renewed confidence that I am indeed going to win that bet. Godspeed Chun!
https://m.primal.net/JzAN.jpg