JOHNARNOLD
JOHN ARNOLD

Bitcoin @ Ten31

Public Key

npub1g0eujuzgy06srs3sdanaytzq8adsd78d4g4p5xqtlue3d3q3v2mq6pl966

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Profile Code

nprofile1qqsy8u7fwpyz8agpcgcx7e7j93qr7kcxlrk652s6rq9l7vckcsgk9dspzfmhxue69uhhqatjwpkx2urpvuhx2ucpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduq3samnwvaz7tmswfjk66t4d5h8qunfd4skctnwv46qz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ehx7um5wghxyctwvsq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwwpexjmtpdshxuet588as6z

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npub1g0eujuzgy06srs3sdanaytzq8adsd78d4g4p5xqtlue3d3q3v2mq6pl966

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Last Notes

2026-02-06 19:56:07 UTC

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“I’ve moved on to other things.”
-Satoshi, April 23, 2011 🧐
https://blossom.primal.net/3dfac7edf4ee3d9081930b3f9723bf2abdb0080de3b156f934b1b05ffce2049f.jpg
#nevent1q…cq32

2026-02-06 14:10:09 UTC

https://blossom.primal.net/0acc69747fa5c6f73291c80c8b5bcab5147931e91fb3972b954b37a5eea94060.png

2026-02-06 13:57:03 UTC

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FWIW, this is not how it works
#nevent1q…uyt0

2026-02-05 15:18:22 UTC

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Secret?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GgVoaJnXoAAfHVE.jpg

2026-02-05 13:01:37 UTC

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Going about as you’d expect
https://x.com/MiyaHedge/status/2019276743551463671?s=20

2026-02-05 11:41:06 UTC

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Officially shifting into this phase of the bear
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GR4X1XZXUAATntj.jpg
#nevent1q…0rj8

2026-02-04 15:54:52 UTC

The world if we all just stayed humble and stacked sats
https://en.meming.world/images/en/thumb/a/a4/The_World_If.jpg/300px-The_World_If.jpg

2026-02-04 11:02:48 UTC

It is the year of our Lord two thousand and twenty six and some of you are still out here talking about “over leveraged bitcoin treasury companies”

2026-02-03 14:25:37 UTC

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https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqs972p9l4alnrzq8tge4hz38m35ut5u3vvqpx2qwj7xc2su0382cgqx5xr5l

2026-02-01 11:28:03 UTC

Bitcoiners: Everything you see is fake, don’t trust verify
Also bitcoiners: Every word of this terabyte document dump allegedly from the email account of one of history’s great villains is completely real and should be taken at face value

2026-02-01 10:59:34 UTC

https://i.imgflip.com/aixwvf.jpg

2026-01-30 18:06:13 UTC

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https://sun6-19.userapi.com/eErOseAg-kgRvGEMz11WxnItAaLRMXAf2LKrgw/nbltSsPvDvc.jpg
#nevent1q…v9hw

2026-01-28 15:21:25 UTC

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They will say things like this without ever considering that their decades of consistently making the most disqualifying decisions imaginable might suggest they should find something else to do

2026-01-26 11:52:04 UTC

It’s a good time to be short any system that assumes epistemic continuity with your fellow man

2026-01-23 20:37:31 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/effb37a466531c2ab01d10b4a740ec91afbcc2127a3042c3bc644614f0804282.jpg
#nevent1q…yalx

2026-01-23 20:28:04 UTC

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So true

2026-01-23 16:29:55 UTC

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Another potential candidate to watch
https://blossom.primal.net/079358741a9445cc3913623fb4ca55104ea3909c7eeb6506839fab403fc7c840.jpg

2026-01-22 19:56:04 UTC

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Incidentally I think this basically captures what the next major catalyst is lol

2026-01-22 19:14:59 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/f5a3e30d8d3dcf6196121bf112b84ede90f4922eb866f9c6a534a91d6146453a.gif

2026-01-22 16:08:56 UTC

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For sure, makes sense

2026-01-22 16:08:39 UTC

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For sure, makes sense

2026-01-22 15:53:47 UTC

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ETFs seem to follow an existing rally, very rare that you actually see them initiate or front-run one. Getting big momentum here is helpful in sustaining a trend but I think the spark has to come from somewhere else

2026-01-21 15:27:05 UTC

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Probably more of a Green River guy tbh

2026-01-21 12:49:17 UTC

A good talk for anyone who can’t figure out why geriatric central bankers who can barely turn on a computer are stacking atoms instead of sats
https://youtu.be/Z6qzEYxBYcQ

2026-01-21 11:27:37 UTC

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Believe in something
https://blossom.primal.net/8fa45541bd7bf45ed2c8d00bce5e98a9efba6274a9bb7af75a50701e273a22db.jpg
#nevent1q…gkmq

2026-01-18 12:53:41 UTC

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“So true”
“Anyway, back to scrolling”
#nevent1q…g3lc

2026-01-17 11:38:30 UTC

You can rest assured that Trump, like any politician, will often get many things wrong, perhaps even catastrophically. But if your only mental model for him is that he’s a uniquely impulsive moron with no plan, you are going to be in for (at least) three more years of befuddlement

2026-01-16 15:07:12 UTC

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Addendum: Read this while groggy and just realized you wrote “private” rather than “pirate,” which makes more sense but is a significantly less entertaining image

2026-01-16 09:14:07 UTC

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Haven’t listened yet, just shitposting. I don’t agree with the premise of this reply (CRQC not inevitable + disagree with the subjective judgment that some “pirate VC” getting the coins is net worse for bitcoin long run than a preemptive seizure) but you and I went back and forth on this a couple weeks ago so prob no need to re-litigate here. I look forward to listening to the full rip.

2026-01-15 18:56:52 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/2e3f367b46f048fd91f4800e9a1ac2596fa621495e50169cab0fa24a1ff9fb6a.png

2026-01-14 17:28:18 UTC

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You can’t put a price on a quality shitpost

2026-01-14 11:57:20 UTC

Never forget what they took from you
https://blossom.primal.net/19ee0d847c96bd915a8200ff5a5e02f16339ae1a07c43757ffb18d864bca7848.mov

2026-01-12 13:01:48 UTC

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He has stolen so much of my money this way. Maybe one day I will learn

2026-01-11 09:56:45 UTC

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Gotta be really exhausting for Current Thing supporters

2026-01-07 11:45:21 UTC

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FWIW the path of much less resistance seems to be financial (as usual). The public rhetoric on both sides is probably just kayfabe while they negotiate the final price.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/rubio-tells-lawmakers-trump-aims-to-buy-greenland-downplays-military-action-5c94e05c

2026-01-07 00:42:35 UTC

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*taps sign*
https://www.azquotes.com/public/picture_quotes/96/99/969991d89d98d731deef4ed0df0fa24d/c-s-lewis-349305.jpg

2026-01-06 02:05:58 UTC

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Applicable to a wide variety of topics

2026-01-05 13:21:40 UTC

Whenever you read “let’s be clear” or some variant at the top of a post you just know you’re about to read one of the worst takes of all time

2026-01-04 16:34:51 UTC

One of my key takeaways from this weekend is that Fortunate Son is way more of a banger than I remembered

2026-01-04 10:23:25 UTC

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https://x.com/JohnArnoldTen31/status/1997750793739305291

2026-01-03 18:48:54 UTC

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I am just some internet moron, but I think it’s only about oil in a limited sense
https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1982190436677792021

2026-01-03 13:46:12 UTC

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Real ones know that’s what this is actually all about

2026-01-03 13:08:06 UTC

Important reminder for all you war experts today (of any persuasion)
https://unewsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-02-at-6.12.55%E2%80%AFPM.png

2026-01-03 10:56:13 UTC

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Worth reading as this escalates:
https://medium.com/@mcnai002/the-venezuelan-drone-crisis-313dad18497d
#nevent1q…q4vv

2026-01-02 15:57:25 UTC

I’ll take Headlines That Are So On the Nose They Sound Fake for $1000, Alex
https://nypost.com/2026/01/01/us-news/mamdani-fans-disappointed-by-disastrous-block-party-inauguration-with-no-food-bathrooms/

2026-01-01 11:23:12 UTC

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We did it boys
#nevent1q…68tp

2025-12-31 13:18:12 UTC

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https://external-preview.redd.it/TcloND5smg6Fy1fCNQ4jXuXN8-z1YpTaownM7NDOd_k.jpg?auto=webp&s=3083591e7ffa92300400c3748f40bf077a296973

2025-12-31 12:09:00 UTC

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More bitcoiners should actually read Buffett’s copious writing and research his career instead of being butthurt that a 90 year old didn’t understand the corn. You’ll find he’s largely the antithesis of the high time preference fiat world.
#nevent1q…mzk8

2025-12-31 00:46:25 UTC

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I think you mean the “strongly worded letter” party

2025-12-29 11:17:33 UTC

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If you set the over / under at 20 years, I would take the over

2025-12-26 17:09:54 UTC

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https://youtu.be/6_uVswLeLW4

2025-12-25 11:06:13 UTC

Now ye need not fear the grave
Merry Christmas ✝️
https://youtu.be/GE4PH_Kjy0I

2025-12-24 19:34:58 UTC

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Democracy in action

2025-12-22 18:25:50 UTC

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I’ve seen enough, time to shut it all down
#nevent1q…v2kk

2025-12-21 21:39:23 UTC

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Source?

2025-12-21 13:36:34 UTC

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Think there are a couple things getting lost in translation here:
1) Re the 5%, I was going off your closing comment about “an extra million coins,” which I took to be your approximation of total coins immediately vulnerable to a CRQC at rest (very old P2PK addresses etc). I’m not sure where the latest estimate stands on that, but that delta (which you cited in your post) is what I’m responding to. But even at a 10, 20, 50% etc difference between forks, the credibility point still seems more relevant to me in the long run than the absolute number.
2) I absolutely grant that suddenly reawakening a large amount of supply at once would impact the price in the short run. I think there are reasons to be skeptical that that’s actually how it would play out, but even granting that that happened, I don’t think it’s ideal to optimize critical design questions around short-term price dynamics (Bitcoin is not a company, but any company that makes material changes to strategy to avoid temporary declines in its stock price is one you want to avoid). The future I’m imagining is one where PQC signatures / quantum-safe options exist (obviously TBD but that’s it’s own question, and pointless to worry about freezing old coins if we can’t figure that out), so “stolen” coins could only be stolen once (presumably they would quickly end up in quantum-safe addresses, even if their thieves immediately dumped them on the open market), and the price of original bitcoin therefore wouldn’t be permanently impaired. That we should look into developing quantum-safe options to make that possible is a different conversation than what we should do or not do with vulnerable coins.
3) I’m not making any philosophical claims here about Bitcoin’s nature, though I have some objections to the way you frame your comments. My point was simply about how “the market” (as you framed it) would evaluate the two hypothetical chains, and I’m saying a) that evaluation would focus more on supply credibility than just absolute number of circulating bitcoin and b) it seems there’s good reason to believe it would find the original chain more credible in its supply schedule guarantees than the other.

2025-12-21 12:21:03 UTC

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Some bitcoin becoming dormant because of user-side key loss (which in at least some cases could in principle be recovered, e.g. landfill guy) or voluntary user-side burning is not comparable to some bitcoin becoming forever unspendable at the network level

2025-12-21 12:16:01 UTC

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>”Ultimately the free market will decide”
Agree, and that’s the point I’m responding to. My view is that “the market” will value credibility of supply schedule over an absolute number of outstanding bitcoin. Maybe Matt is right that the fork would retain sufficient credibility and would ultimately win out, but I don’t think that will be on the basis of having a marginally lower supply.

2025-12-21 11:51:49 UTC

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Re: the point about what the market will prefer, it seems the relevant question is not just one of absolute magnitude. At the end of the day, a total supply difference of <5% is basically irrelevant if both are thought to have credibly fixed supply, but a fork with a demonstrated history of changing bitcoin’s key economic schelling point (even if it’s “just once, we swear”) arguably weakens the forward credibility of that fixity. You know more than I do about how justified that view would be wrt bitcoin’s mechanics, but IMO “the market” values the unchanging supply schedule more than the absolute number, particularly when the difference would be so small.
Much less important, but kind of related: “there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin” is a much cleaner economic coordination point than “there will only ever be 19.87 million [or whatever fractional number] bitcoin”

2025-12-20 13:37:02 UTC

https://blossom.primal.net/53862913695f6d20ac49a7be3cc461192e5cd17ecb0c27cc44f527b5edea2a83.png

2025-12-19 20:05:02 UTC

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That’s all just engineering details

2025-12-19 18:49:22 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/41ad4d84ffe225b8ee04c8d87609fd2e6806792059fbe1d0876062ce2e3169ad.png

2025-12-19 17:55:16 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/53312c841c8cca3b4b19ed997b0139a895edbf73273198c8d6598ee38d18e704.gif

2025-12-19 15:38:52 UTC

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Just some yahoo on nostr who has thought about this too long

2025-12-19 15:22:40 UTC

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If you were the USG and wanted to build a material bitcoin position with the following constraints, how would you do it?
https://blossom.primal.net/12f2f4a2c2ea6db1e4064fecdf21400f0f05c94d90e2048c9f5ec2d2a405c61b.png

2025-12-19 09:53:17 UTC

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Haven’t updated since early this year but here are some thoughts.
https://www.ten31.xyz/insights/quantum-computing-bitcoin-security

2025-12-18 19:09:15 UTC

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Not so fast - didn’t you know we’re about to get a de minimis capital gains* tax exemption?
*on stablecoins

2025-12-18 12:50:17 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/71ad26a679b2a463a1a6a089720c7cc3f58825fba8b5cbafed7e05ff697523db.gif

2025-12-17 19:27:16 UTC

I am begging y’all not to base any quantum opinions on what a random TA guru says

2025-12-16 12:51:35 UTC

Perhaps one of the only useful pieces of advice I have is that if you see a chart that seems to show some absurd decline / spike in any metric in a short amount of time, it is very, very likely the result of data error or some kind of reclassification in the data series.
Doubly true if a) the chart relates to a complex and thorny topic with multivariate inputs and b) the direction of the chart plays to your confirmation bias.

2025-12-16 01:49:28 UTC

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Men will come back to nostr for the first time in over a month to drop a stale joke instead of just going to therapy
#nevent1q…0s9k

2025-12-12 03:13:31 UTC

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Sounds like something a spook would say

2025-12-09 16:08:27 UTC

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I regret to inform you all that the bull market will not actually recommence until we stop posting updates about <5% moves to random insignificant prices
#nevent1q…nj2v

2025-12-04 15:22:56 UTC

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This is a long way to say stay humble and stack sats
#nevent1q…m2cf

2025-12-04 14:19:06 UTC

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You had me at Bitcoin Sous Vide

2025-12-02 20:39:40 UTC

I’m skeptical of pieces of the MSTR story / strategy, and I’m extremely skeptical that holding MSTR common will outperform bitcoin over any significant period, but all y’all waiting for Saylor to “get liquidated” are gonna be waiting a very long time

2025-11-27 10:54:59 UTC

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People are going to do the meme all the way to hyperbitcoinization
https://preview.redd.it/this-never-gets-old-v0-g7idqkrt70jf1.jpeg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=4baa23708c6933c364fecdedd91273c3bd97ab9f

2025-11-25 15:11:09 UTC

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>when he starts talking about it, it becomes clear he has zero understanding
Many such cases
(with bitcoin and most other things)

2025-11-24 22:20:24 UTC

Does anyone have that mashup video of every influencer and speaker saying “stablecoin” ad nauseam at the Vegas conference this year? Made the rounds a few months ago but can’t find it anywhere now.
#asknostr

2025-11-21 14:42:49 UTC

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58k then ATH for teh lulz

2025-11-21 14:00:02 UTC

My career thus far has taught me that markets very frequently optimize for the funniest outcome, on both the downside and the upside
Draw your own conclusions as you see fit

2025-11-21 11:48:49 UTC

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Hand up, my bad

2025-11-20 16:47:53 UTC

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Central bankers hate this one weird trick

2025-11-20 15:57:52 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/d6adfa0e345e5f4e6a1754fcccf4b5eec332b58541385538772e34361e29fea0.gif

2025-11-19 00:13:23 UTC

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Never wrong if you don’t specify which conference day
https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/d6a/dc7/4a5001b7beea096457f480c8808572428b-09-roll-safe.rsquare.w400.jpg

2025-11-17 12:26:43 UTC

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Much to consider
https://youtu.be/ay_Db4RwZ_M

2025-11-14 13:24:28 UTC

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Time to mentally fortify yourself
https://preview.redd.it/whos-ready-for-turkey-day-v0-vykh2olrq53e1.jpeg?auto=webp&s=38707e19583fb22836dfc1c5714d7b4f104ba0bc

2025-11-13 18:46:07 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/c4f5ea915a2b5c7c1231fe53c9924a2a7443eb1ab9f0860e19b1af1817d4c402.jpg
#nevent1q…3tds

2025-11-12 10:25:45 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/8349c4dd4fe84d6147bb356d1b93b1245e4123a301f44a5593d426514a818896.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/da4cb2983a1d148916c878a41b534ad3ad32e19aca407929c0604c12a27b1ce9.jpg

2025-11-07 19:52:56 UTC

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Meh, wake me up when we hit $105,731
#nevent1q…2rch

2025-11-07 18:51:30 UTC

https://blossom.primal.net/09173af57178d1598a4cc3bedccaf21e40ea66da59a93c1d3dcef2e29a29c551.jpg

2025-11-07 16:36:06 UTC

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https://blossom.primal.net/3b87f42bce82a9f59d0d21b41218b21437fd43779d6e732674a15e49522eae41.jpg

2025-11-07 14:12:40 UTC

Getting to that point where I’m so bearish I’m bullish

2025-11-05 15:55:01 UTC

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