Portfolio manager (EM debt, rates, FX). De- vs centralisation is the left/right of our age. Bitcoin, markets, life, family etc. Writing into the void
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npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 Profile Code
nprofile1qqsyggqyqr9rftdr9r27zadnfzyth07rusm6f8jw5e2cg8arsjtnyhqpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejszrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqzxrhwden5te0wfjkccte9eekummjwsh8xmmrd9skcqg5waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t0qyv8wumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3gamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wdau8gu3wv3jhvttp0kz
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2026-01-11T11:48:51Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Bitcoin simply can’t go up in bursts without the normie majority doubting, ridiculing and avoiding it. That’s the rocket fuel, always has been. And the tank is filling up fast npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog All the people that will in the future once again be called “lucky”, who “were just at the right place at the right time” etc… are stacking bitcoin hard at this moment, while turbo boomers rejoice in all directions as Bitcoin has finally died. My personal stack of the day was inspired by some old guy on X who wrote a long story about how Bitcoin could never go up anymore because of all the paper bitcoin. Yes, yes, that’s very interesting grandpa. Concerning! <puts another million sats in cold storage> npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Number go up is a nice feature when it works. But really taking your wealth out of the banking system / stock market, and away from the greedy hands of faceless bureauc-rats is priceless npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Median Bitcoin return when Fed balance sheet flips from contraction to expansion (last happening in Dec 2025): After 3M: +1.5% After 6M: +35.7% After 12M: +149% npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Going through a full bear market like a slow motion train wreck with your whole bitcoin stack intact is an acquired taste npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Yes of course. But this is how brypto people operate. https://blossom.primal.net/77d25e87f8c0eef7e4c82303ff7a7ba020a75d10a6e2ae0832db296fbe5fdd58.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Not too sure what’s going on with Bitcoin right now. Macro should be supportive: weaker dollar, looser financial conditions, Fed printing. I’m not a “BTC must always go up” guy, but historically this is exactly the environment it did well in. Yet instead we have: 1. People obsessively trying to enforce a 4 year cycle 2. The strange events of 10/10 3. Quantum FUD reaching a crescendo? likely in service of (1). A narrative is always found when a market wants one 4. DATs feel increasingly fragile. If there are levels where the structure collapses, markets have a habit of hunting them Somehow 1+2+3+4 are overpowering macro for now. Price moves far enough and for some weaker hands it triggers “did I really spend all this time, energy and money for nothing?” We all know that feeling. Add to that the “crypto” problem: too much leverage, too much extraction, too much grift and theft. FTX, 10/10. The chickens are coming home to roost, and unfortunately we correlate for now. So what next? Probably time. If we’re unlucky, we grind. If we’re lucky, we get a broader market break and the liquidity bazookas come back out. I’m increasingly coming to terms with this being another 2018–19 or 2022–23. And honestly? I didn’t hate those years. Quiet. Boring. Peaceful sat-stacking heaven. Maybe we get to watch crypto die for entertainment during it. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Came across that social media platform that AI agents made to interact between themselves, where humans are not allowed to post. Made me think. They probably set up that website hosting through a bitcoin payment, which will be the only way such agents will be able to have financial agency for lack of a better word. This is the bull case for BTC that seems not well understood. The digital economy is going to increasingly dominate. BTC is the only real and credible native digital currency in that. Hence adoption is going way the fuck up. 1 sat will equal $1 npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Pretty funny npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog What’s really interesting right now is you see a lot of “crypto” people turning on their hobby. Starting to openly hate everything Bitcoin first and foremost. I see even professionals involved in it doing this. Unbelievable lol, the professional waffling class that joined us is capitulating at the first 35% drawdown. Buying more npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Do you like that sell off, gold fanatics? Live by the gun die by the gun npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog People don’t realise that many of the loudest Bitcoin or “crypto” voices on X are people with severe mental illness that built their accounts by just being around and interacting during the hype years, and then when all sound of mind people left, they stuck around. Many of them are failures in life and grumpy haters projecting their own sadness onto Bitcoin. There’s zero signal there. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Watching talking heads try to short bitcoin into the ground because muh four year cycle while they declare it dead twelve times a day and its price hovers in a tight 10% range for months is good entertainment npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog When trying to out-war Europe goes wrong https://blossom.primal.net/8d5eae435f4bb4658535aab82b35427033aa5577e3cd71c4f65a545f5106c935.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog The rise and fall of crypto has tainted Bitcoin and delayed what will inevitably happen. This offers both opportunity and frustrating headwinds. BTC remains completely misunderstood by most. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Too many people nowadays view Bitcoin through an “investment thesis” lens when really they should view it more through a “core properties” lens. Otherwise you’ll always be behind the curve npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Fuck cuck media npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I mean whether you get cucked on American, Euro or Chinese public propaganda platforms, does it really make a difference npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog They’ve now done 1) exit tax and 2) taxing unrealised capital gains. Now we wait for the inevitable global taxation on capital gains, or some such thing in prob 5 years tops. War + a nanny state + infinity foreigners + boomers used to their comforts since retiring at 57 won’t fund itself. Personally, governments such as these are coming very close to or have already crossed the line to immorality. One might consider (not that I would recommend it myself necessarily, this is just hypothetical) to structure their wealth with optionality to both a moral and an immoral world. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I think this is that point in world history, which seems to come every century, where you just need to look after yourself, your family and your inner circle, act rationally but for the most part disconnect emotionally from the news cycle. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog The optionality that self-custodied bitcoin provides against the backdrop of a rapidly (and dangerously) changing world, compared to stocks, real estate, even gold, is completely underappreciated and undervalued atm. Muh quantum. Wish that was the biggest of our worries brother. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Some people (hedge funds I’m guessing) are obviously balls deep in the long gold / short Bitcoin trade. Can’t wait for Bitcoin to do a Bitcoin, there will be carnage npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog When it comes to investing, I mentally divide trades into 3 different buckets. Bucket 1 - market exposure, this is just your all world equity exposure, typically ETFs with extremely low fees, heavy on US Big Tech by definition. If global headlines say, oh no it’s risky out there, stocks are down, you’re losing money together with the rest of the world, and vice versa. Beta Bucket 2 - thematic exposure where the theme should have tailwinds, but where I’m not sure if it will play out in the near term. Markets may be overheated, the theme is coming to the end of its life or things are fully priced in. Things like AI tick all of those for me right now. Potential alpha Bucket 3 - thematic exposure that I know for sure will go higher, almost mechanically. Think Europe defence stocks into threats from 3 directions and all governments ramping up spending in the hundreds of billions. Think Bitcoin into balance sheet expansion. Think gold into global uncertainty. Alpha I think the best investors have capacity to construct a portfolio that is extremely heavy on bucket 3. They see things with a clarity others don’t. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I can’t really take bitcoiners cheering on an aggressively expansionist central government seriously. I mean people who like that sort of thing exist and that’s fine and all, but I’ll never respect your larping about decentralisation and freedom after that. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Yes I’m the clicking buttons like a monkey when faced with clear explicit warnings guy. I’m him npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Was straight up not having a good time with whatever the fuck this is just now. UX hell https://blossom.primal.net/2ee58652f4533cf4b526857b3afa34b1b0d514ac04f23be5929a6035d4244c24.png npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog You kind of need to let legacy social media come to a slow boil and boil alive in its own pot tbh. You can of course point out to the intelligent ones in the pot (whether they have 100 or 100,000 followers) that they're participating in the largest public propaganda psyop the world has ever seen and get them to jump out But I don't think you want the ones that are actively collaborating with the regime(s) to turn up the heat to show up here. Just my humble opinion. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog It's true npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog welcome to the club, pal npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Tweak I made to the portfolio today: adding 2% COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF as part of the energy / power / resources theme. Should be self-explantory. Funded from cash. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Back in 2021 I was a big worrying about quantum guy. Would not have worked out well for me if I had leaned into those worries. https://blossom.primal.net/d899838808c8943fbda59da317874a1c4096d10cb12bb3c0c0462453a272e15a.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Performance update on my OostLog model portfolio (inception: 25 Dec 2025): +5.76%. Off to a good start. I’ll rebalance this occasionally and write about my reasoning here. Starting capital for the portfolio is $1m. Note: my own wealth is actually stored more Bitcoin-heavy than this. This portfolio is intended as a capital-preservation / fiat-markets + hard-assets hybrid, and also as a framework for thinking through investment themes. Housekeeping: LNGR from my original portfolio (longevity) appears to have been delisted. I’m keeping that 2.5% in cash for now, ready to deploy. https://blossom.primal.net/c03709189682296cfee5652fa772f64c6129e4d26e2daa74e45aaaa9133439fa.png https://primal.net/OostLog/d35df09fd426ad6b npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I secretly counter trade my own kids Pay them pocket money in sats at $125k, they come to me at $95k saying they want to use it to buy some shit Bang, gonna have to transfer me back more sats for that, kid. Better study bitcoin harder next time Thug life npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Gm gm npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I find that if you tune out the noise and think about markets at the highest positive level in an intuitive way, it’s almost always very clear which way Bitcoin is headed against fiat. 2018-19 - fed starts QT, shitcoin mania obviously got overextended, it can only go one way (down). 2020 - Fed balance sheet is expanding, Fed firing on all cylinders, adoption accelerating, it can only go one way (up). 2021/22 - Fed starts QT, Celsius, FTX etc blowing up, it can only go one way (down). 2023-25 - ETFs pick up steam, it can only go one way (up). 2026 - ETFs to grow and grow, QE to restart, it can only go one way (up). There’s not a pattern, just a few basic drivers. What’s the Fed doing in terms of printing, what does adoption look like and is the crypto market going to shit yes or no. Also learn to look at the monthly candles, so that wicks like Mar20, Aug24, Nov25 don’t distort your perspective. Fuck the traders and their noise npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Bitcoin ETFs are a coping mechanism for the masses who know they’ll never be whole coiners npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I’ve always been a cold storage “stack it and forget it” Bitcoin guy Only last year I set up wallets for actively spending my Bitcoin (segregated from the main stash for psychological reasons and funded via a low fee cex with little friction in terms of cost and time) Feel like it’s helped me ascend to a deeper understanding of Bitcoin and its future. On the one hand, yeah it IS digital gold and none of us will ever own as much of it as we do today. On the other hand, money must be spent. That’s how Bitcoin wins and how you slowly uncuck yourself npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog The real fight here imo is about who gets to control the cycle If you keep Fed dominance = asset inflation + controlled CPI + stagnation via engineered busts and risk aversion If you get Treasury calling the shots = weaker USD + perpetual asset inflation + stagnation via asset inflation crowding out productive growth So it’s not really 1970s style inflation, but more 2010–20 on steroids: a long, grinding asset-led inflationary drift npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog You seen the Powell presser? Probably shouldn’t have sold your Bitcoin no? npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Idk, I’ve always seen it as a brothers-in-arms kind of thing. We suffer and we win together, but don’t need to be best friends. Real ones that leave aren’t forgotten. My team is going through some redundancies rn, but truthfully, the ones that will be cut haven’t really shown their face on the battlefield for years. It’s not that deep. https://blossom.primal.net/664370eb9e39eec80a68736989f733644e4bb5f6b48519a87efdf8f664f56936.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Many of us typing into the void with no engagement let alone zaps lol. But we’re going to meme this thing into the biggest social media protocol in the world npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I like this new era of Bitcoin. Less hypey, all shitcoins dead already. Talking heads shouting about how mediocre the gains against dollar will be from here out. Yet the coin just existing, at 90k. Freedom money for anyone to adopt, now 99% less retarded npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Awesome post and super recognisable 😅 One of the reasons I don’t do social media (the non-pseudonymous type) at all, there are certain people that I’d rather leave in the past for good. Having moved countries and addresses a few times over the years helps, only thing that worries me is my name is increasingly getting out there for professional reasons, ie my professional profile is rising while my personal one is fading etc npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Tried to zap you but no wallet set up! npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog First - I appreciate the level headed response, Nostr is so great for this. I read a book by Eduard Habsburg over the holidays (“seven rules for turbulent times”) and one of the points he makes about empires, is that succesful ones should always devolve things to the lowest level possible, ie what can be done on local level should be done there. Decentralisation! This is probably what I hate most about the EU, the tendency for bureaucrats in Brussels to want to decide whether the lights in my street should be on or off at a certain time (hypothetical example but you get the idea). It’s total overreach from far away. Increasingly it also feels like an institution abused by national governments to pass things national populations don’t want and force it down our throats as a fait accompli (immigration, chat control, crypto laws, that sort of thing). This all pains me because I am a proud European and I love some of the benefits of integration. But the institution needs to change as it’s making a lot of people extremely upset in its current form and tendencies. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Same is true for almost every European country. Betrayed by the boomers who first sucked it dry, and then became more decadently left-wing as they got to the later stages of life, almost as if they were seeking an ideology to fit with their selfish decisions (debt, immigrants, budgetise the military, infrastructure etc to fund left wing hobbies). Anyway that much is clear. What is more interesting to me is what comes next. Europe will get out of this impasse either way, but will it be messy or organised? I hate the current EU but gut feeling says European integration is not getting wound back any time soon. It’s almost like a charismatic pan European leader needs to emerge, but today I can’t even picture what that would look like. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog As a normie going in there is like bringing a knife to a gun fight. There you are, entering the public market place for psyops of every imaginable intelligence service on earth, you’re surely going to convince them of your point! npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog https://blossom.primal.net/45859742a8ea8430b4cde9e0d5a0026e06d9cc584ee6d9394293c0d6e3f635ba.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Bitcoin is going way higher (Fed balance sheet). https://blossom.primal.net/094de7731386a10924058e097024763bf51aabf1a97d206e76d54feddfc98d7e.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Over the next decade, wars will be fought, maps redrawn, governments will default and their currencies hyperinflate or dissapear, while people lose their jobs due to being automated away. I don’t think we will see ww1/ww2 scale conflict, but more of the sort of things we’ve already been experiencing for years. More Ukraine, Trump, Putin, Venezuela, Iran, drones, covid, psyops, internet outages, rebellions and men in green uniforms. But for most of us, thankfully not outright war or collapse. How to survive? Stay nimble and fast on your feet, be able to move around. Be fit. Find income streams not linked to your location, save in bitcoin. And tune. tf. out. from the noise, focus on yourself and family and your inner worlds, don’t voluntarily plug in to mass propaganda venues like X. It’ll actually all be fine. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog The world is only getting more adversarial from here on. Imagine not keeping most of your savings in Bitcoin npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Movies like Train Dreams that are shot in 4:3 make me irrationally angry. Let me make full use of my screens and 2020s technology that I paid good money for, don’t bother me with your fancy artsy bullshit. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Once you decentralise at least aspects of your life (even if it’s only, say, money and social media), it becomes easier to deal with the clown world. Imo, all our ancestors had to deal with clown worlds of sorts, but were to an extent opted out by default. Their lives were informal, local, and unrecorded. Technology has opted us in to clown world by default, but decentralisation is the exit. Simple. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Big resolutions for the new year include leaving X behind completely, and moving more of my spending onto a Bitcoin standard. For the latter, I’m probably weird like that but a problem for me has always been that most of my Bitcoin stash is cold storage and I see it as long term family savings. So going into 2026 I will more regularly convert part of my salary into Bitcoin each month, move it to a hot wallet / Lightning and spend it. Because fuck fiat. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog The real frustration with Bitcoin is that it’s not a story that will be written over the years, but over the decades and likely centuries. We all want to be there for the 0 to 1 and live happily ever after but truth is even our kids may not see it in its final form. That’s humbling npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I enjoy these moves, because I know at the other side of it there are some big sharks increasingly exasperated that their manipulative bullshit tactics aren’t moving the market by more than +/- 2% these days. All your pathetic efforts for this lmao. https://blossom.primal.net/e47fbe50c7c0f6478ae0a44310303fc93e641ced8342e21eef6172fba8dbce44.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Fed balance sheet expanding for the first time since March 2023 (SVB debacle), which was when the recent Bitcoin bull run started. Imo on a false belief that QE was restarting materially. It didn’t and was quickly unwound, leaving Bitcoin a bit in no man’s land (but still pumping due to 4y cycle cultists and ETFs). I think we’re going a lot higher soon. https://blossom.primal.net/f201a320f8ec73dde0e9d461ee1e7f38ee53fe585fe660ea5ad139030e12f5ef.jpg https://blossom.primal.net/359506d7597017bf003c012d1d873c63197b7e26d3303fc1f3bb594efdb82b84.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Dear diary, Every day the gold people’s victory laps become more vicious. I picture them sitting there, gold bars piled up on their desk absolutely gloating at Bitcoiners online. “Lmaaooo gotem!” they type 5 times as they look at a carefully zoomed in chart that should not extend even a fraction further to the left. “Up a 2x against your digital shitcoin, pay back, bitches!” They are rich now. Tomorrow they’re putting all their gold bars in a bag to drive an hour to the big town next door, where they can sell them for at least 90% of the quoted spot price (75% in case the casing wasn’t carefully kept), after doing KYC and scanning their anus. In T+2 days the fiat will be in their bank accounts. Imagine being a Bitcoiner, they say to themselves. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Nostr isn’t either. Because they can’t 🖕 npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Back when I really started loading up on Bitcoin, I guess it was 2018, it was one of those times where Bitcoin was “obviously dead”, endless obituaries. And my thinking was simply “something worth a few thousand $ is very much not dead”. Fade BTC at 80k all you want lmao. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Imagine watching the global discourse around CBDC, surveillance, exit taxes and not seeing the point of Bitcoin beyond “digital gold” / NgU. The lack of basic survival instinct truly baffles the mind npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Merry Christmas npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Layout not perfect. I wrote this with YakiHonne. Any tips welcome npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Just tried something new, my first article/read on Nostr. #naddr1qq…nqsw npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog https://blossom.primal.net/7eb0b7b1562aa3bf2d12b203a2d9930c0de0be424ef58cbd28fcd7fe9e09e9df.png npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Merry Christmas npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Kind of in disbelief that gold bugs are doing the same thing shitcoiners do once every few years https://blossom.primal.net/9464ff03e1c9f2826bd5b3196b62eca991aa1d65533bc4e60406795e2d56d815.jpg https://blossom.primal.net/a62fa99aa11538943b35464888046e033fae23d0ab00acad9e6ba3a825ebe31e.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog This is awesome #nevent1q…mcdt npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog “Recasting Christmas as a marker of Christian civilization” 🤣 that’s what I love about clown world, all the entertainment is free. https://blossom.primal.net/8d79701f044c4f9a7d00b441cba9a6ce00f975731cd77f3b88106e168b6263fe.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I love the current state of Bitcoin. Its story since 2010 has been human arrogance and hubris all the way down: First one and a half decade was all about “we can make a better Bitcoin”, which failed, so now it’s “Bitcoin is dead” by the exact same people. Insert any narrative, ie quantoom, to argue that case. Very obviously global acceptance and adoption lies beyond this current phase. What humans thought about Bitcoin never mattered. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Keep seeing people say things like “the debasement trade is happening, but bitcoin is lagging (panic)”. No, there is no debasement trade today. That’s a false narrative perpetuated by tradfi nerds who finally understood it about half a decade late. In recent times, rates went to 5.5%, and we had 3 years of quantitative tightening where all post H1 2020 excess liquidity was drained. Today, there’s no debasement, if anything the old system has re-strengthened somewhat (though the fiscal/debt binge doesn’t help). Bitcoin went up on ETF hype at a time where it really shouldn’t have. Instead, what you’re seeing is central banks swapping dollars for gold out of geopolitical spite and worry. This is quite literally the two old system behemoths duking it out one last time, and the dollar is not winning that fight. Bitcoin is not a direct part of that story after less than two measly decades, though once the result of the match gets clearer likely benefits strongly. One day it will be a direct participant too, but that day is not today. There’s zero signal in this for BTC, and most of the narrative is false. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog What I like most about Bitcoin is that it has pushed investing into the background. It’s no longer “just full port all you have into the SPY because money loses its value anyway”. I keep a large part of my wealth in a savings account (BTC) and so some speculation / diversification on the side. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Beautifully said. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Currently DCA’ing by the fireplace npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Stimulating the break-up of the EU while simultaneously threatening to take territories of “small, irrelevant countries” like Denmark isn’t a brilliant strategy. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog It’s like having sex with a 75 year old fat prostitute in a dark room. If no one brings any mirrors, you get the job done and everybody’s happy no? Her pimp won’t be friends with the mirror guy npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Because all currencies trade in pairs, Bitcoin has always been about holding up a mirror to fiat. And it’s especially those that know the ugliness of the old system the best, that are most enraged by that mirror showing up. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog What they’ve done to Europe, pumping it full of immigrants to make it “multicultural” against the explicit wishes of its people, while soothing them to sleep with political theatre about details, is a crime against humanity. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog https://blossom.primal.net/f7e1118866cec384532dc2905f3786d04adb1ff25db1a0ccf14e7f0b4124eec1.jpg https://blossom.primal.net/e1cf4d88648ba1b2e174f92a49b3c1a8a47939caefab97b46932839163403f74.jpg https://blossom.primal.net/a2a75820ab9dbb85cbd5a27f0caf74427e746857d32baf7b7922f45119115cc1.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Did the same. Left mid twenties to spend my most productive years in a tax haven. Imagine voluntarily paying into gay communism when you’re still allowed to leave npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Real fun starts when they finally push the Europeans so far that they start doing a little Choyna npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog The Mr Beast smile classic npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog A big part of understanding the current state of the world lies in knowing that our relationship with propaganda used to be one -> many, and is now many -> many. That’s also why people like Macron and Starmer get in a state of straight red hot triggered rage when the words “social media” are merely mentioned npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I see it more as a Me -> Media || Facts struggle. The media is the hurdle to get to the facts by distorting and misrepresenting. But if you get skilful at solving the puzzle the facts are still at the end of the journey. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Love your news app. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I think we’re all subconsciously waiting for the moment where Bitcoin becomes an “easy hold”. But the moment it becomes that, it will likely have plateaud in value (think percentage increases a year, not multiple x). Quantum FUD and people disillusioned we didn’t pump harder into QT are bullish, will provide the final trampoline to $1m and beyond. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I work at one of the big financial firms. In fixed income, so managing bond portfolios. As fiat as it gets and somehow probably a dying profession in the long run, but it pays the (fiat) bills. Obviously, I get around and chat to a wide variety of people in and around the firm, so I have a front-row seat to their evolving perspectives on Bitcoin, and dare I say “digital assets” and “tokenisation” and that sort of nonsense. Not the niche “crypto” VC/fund in-crowd, but boomer traditional finance. Back in 2018-19, I remember chatting to the then head of multi-asset over beers and him laughing at me, calling Bitcoin an obvious scam. Five years later, the same guy re-emerges as the “head of digital assets”. He changed his tune on BTC. At the end of the day, we are all mercenaries. Like him, I’ve seen failed equity portfolio managers fall down and IT people fall up into “crypto”. That’s sort of the make-up of this group today. Not imho the best and the brightest. Today, I wouldn’t call Bitcoin something well-loved or understood in the financial industry. Intuitively, they see it more as a necessary box to tick, so they can jump straight over it to move to shitcoin ETFs and tokenisation. We went from “blockchain, not Bitcoin” for 8 years to half a year of “Bitcoin, I guess” to 2 years of “shitcoin tokenisation, baby”. The CEO is now angry that our Bitcoin ETF fees are low, but BlackRock completely ate our lunch, and their ETF is X times bigger. Etc. The problem is, Bitcoin will never change and give these people the fiat excitement and value extraction they so desperately seek. DATs or MSTR building a Bitcoin yield curve aren’t a thing in our world; that’s niche bitcoiner stuff. Tokenisation is just a tech innovation that can probably cut fees down a bit, but is largely meaningless. Shitcoin ETFs aren’t gaining any traction. So there’s a slow realisation setting in that this thing isn’t going anywhere, these departments over-hired, and besides Bitcoin, which is THE thing, there’s really nothing there. I’m seeing depressed faces and people are losing hope. So all in all, the industry still doesn’t get Bitcoin at all and the current setup won’t last. As a fixed income/currency investor, what I think really needs to happen to get to the next stage is for people to understand that BTC is just another ticker for a currency. EUR, USD, JPY, KRW, BTC. Could be just another line item in your portfolio. A currency like all the others, one not issued by a government that is infinitely more scarce. And for that, you need exactly zero “digital assets” people in your firm. They will all come and go as we head into the next phase of understanding. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog No special event, just precaution as far as I can tell. I know to avoid the big cities around this time of year but this was in like a tier 3 town. Migrant surge definitely not making this easier npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Soldiers patrolling the streets in European Christmas markets is such a sad sight. Puts me in a state of revolutionary rage npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog As a recent convert from X I think it’s about content variety and discoverability. I hate the X algorithm but you do need something that gives people something interesting to read every time they open Nostr. Some sort of middle ground And it can’t all be Bitcoin, pictures and memes npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Amazes me with people like him how they shapeshift. Grows his following as a Bitcoin maxi nerd, pivots to shitcoins and becomes a sort of VC I guess, when shitcoins die suddenly is very concerned with Bitcoin again and becomes a thinkboi npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog These are legit Stasi numbers, which did an estimated 14-17 daily arrests over the DDR’s existence, for 16-17m people. No signs of revolt yet https://blossom.primal.net/86b4f61b106670cd32eebdac034e609863070a7ee7de1e0813f94489424bb845.jpg npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog I self-identify as hostile activity npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog It’s all fairly annoying, always is. But when I see things like the well-orchestrated quantum FUD I personally just go “I’m sorry I wasn’t really familiar with your game” and get ready to stack cheap sats npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Too few people have the humility needed to get that we’re all just lucky passengers on the Bitcoin mega trend. Like our boomer parents were lucky to buy cheap houses that became worth millions. People still seem to live with the idea that what they write about quantum, cycles, China bans or privacy shitcoins somehow is going to affect the trajectory of this thing. It’s your usual human arrogance. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog It’s like, yeah goes without saying? Pumping the west full of third world immigrants - not great. Goes without saying Endless money printing? Not ideal. GWOS Warmongering is the norm and being pro peace makes you a traitor? Not great, GWOS Center politics in Europe is 50% taxes, pro war, pump country full of Bomalians, exit confiscations, hyper surveillance? Not great GWOS Everything is gay and diverse and trans and retarded? Not fantastic GWOS Etc npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog The world is so fucked up, in so many different ways right now that I often don’t even know where to start, so I just say nothing. npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Imagine willingly spending your time there with all the bots and psyops. Literally poisoning your brain as the powers that be duke it out on the global propaganda platform. Volunteering yourself as a test bunny directly plugged into the psyop machine npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Screeching of CryPto TraDerS intensifies npub1gssqgqx2xjk6x2x4u96mxjyghwlu8eph5j0yafj4ss068pyhxfwqwp9h95 OostLog Find it so fascinating that the very smartest people don’t seem to comprehend Bitcoin almost entirely because their mental model is “stock” instead of “currency”. As if something is blocking them from accepting that in 2025 amidst a world that looks radically different from even a decade ago, something else than a central government could issue one. Just complete mental inflexibility.