drgo
Dr. Bitcoin, MD

At least I am sure it may be so…to quote Shakespeare in Macbeth.
The support price model doesn’t mean to expect that price in any one year…it means to expect to be able to buy or sell at least at that price or higher…and to not be surprised when you can buy near that price.

2026-01-31 19:59:50 UTC

#Bitcoin is on sale!
Why am I happy about this? It means I can keep growing my stack. It means my final wealth isn’t locked in yet.
You see, today’s price is not unexpected. How does one expect this price? Extrapolation…it works well, at least for a while.
How to extrapolate Bitcoin price? Get bitcoin price data, put it in a spreadsheet, fit curve to price…you’ll find power law models fit best. To refine this in to a “support” or price “floor” model, just eyeball delete bitcoin mania prices…you can delete data points along the width of points above ½ or ¾ max if you want to be rigorous…
You’ll get an equation for bitcoin price as a function of date.
If you use data from 2011-2016 and repeat this analysis and then repeat again for 2011-2017, 2011-2018, etc, all your equations will be remarkably similar in price prediction for today. Who would have thought that when bitcoin was $600 you could make an equation that was even close to predicting its price a decade later using prior price data alone?
Anyhow, here are my back up the truck and load up on bitcoin prices each year in January for the next several years…this model will be less and less accurate, I suspect, as time goes on, but it can be refreshed with new data if necessary or one can just use the model less rigidly…
I wish I could save an AI prompt to replicate this analysis and share it as a link…
https://image.nostr.build/68c3537f9313c9f9aa3a7e8b23b4194daff4e977f31449a0846cd302de2a7d8a.jpg

2026-01-31 03:14:56 UTC

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Lofty goal…not many can get there, by definition

2026-01-31 03:12:26 UTC

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Inquiring minds want to know…

2026-01-31 02:57:34 UTC

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Hard to roll back all of them…but income tax is the least equally applied. And bitcoin changes the last one…a lot!

2026-01-31 02:55:50 UTC

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Stack sats and shelter…and community.

2026-01-31 02:04:33 UTC

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It didn’t move. It vanished. Only a small fraction of a trillion dollars ever changed hands at the highest price. It would be like if you and I each had 10 rocks and I bought 1 millionth of a rock for $1,000,000 from you and we both declared ourselves to be rich (10 x$1,000,000 x 1,000,000 =$10×10¹² or ten trillion dollars)

2026-01-31 02:00:13 UTC

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This is the way.

2026-01-31 01:58:51 UTC

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Bot…not well programmed, but I get it…well played.

2026-01-31 01:55:23 UTC

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Are you a bot? You keep calling your cherry picking man math but that’s retarded and the kind of thing little Karen’s do…

2026-01-31 01:50:08 UTC

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Have fun staying poor. I’ve literally handed you an easy to verify secret to increasing your wealth faster than you’d otherwise be able to…but it was too long to read. Don’t worry, bitcoin is too hard for you anyways…

2026-01-31 01:05:21 UTC

Here’s a good #AI skills test for you to practice, and it’ll teach you something about #bitcoin price history. And might make you rethink how you stack…
(Adapted from a slam post on nostr)
Pick a number between 1 and 28 and get monthly price data for bitcoin on that day of the month going as far back as you can and up through today..then open excel, plot it, and fit a power law curve to the data (feel free to try fitting literally any other type of curve to the data, it won’t fit as well)…and have excel report the equation and R^2…
If you want to manually delete periods of Bitcoin price mania and run the analysis again, you’ll see the price prediction drop (more intercept than slope) but the R^2 goes up. In fact, the equation is a near perfect fit for the last 9 years in log-log space.
Ok, so now that I’ve told you how to generate a formula for bitcoin price as a function of date, you can repeat the process taking data from the beginning to 2016, and then 2017, and then 2018, etc…what you’ll see is these equations are remarkably similar and all do a surprisingly good job of predicting bitcoin price today…literally many years in advance…
Should bitcoin be closer to $55,000 today than $150,000? The math says yes. But back when bitcoin was $600 in 2016, predicting price would be $55,000 in 2026 sounded insane.
But here we are.

2026-01-31 01:00:53 UTC

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I will blow your mind with math, real math, down below, but you require an insult first.
I think you are using gay small weenie math…real men work and always have something more to contribute. Cherry picking tops is only useful to brag or complain as one necessarily is picking data that applies to almost nobody.
I’m sorry bitcoin didn’t make you rich quick and only got on your radar during a mania phase. I’ve seen it many times over the last 15.5 years I’ve been in bitcoin.
If you want to do real math, pick a number between 1 and 28 and get monthly price data for bitcoin in that day of the month going as far back as you can through today..then open excel, plot it, and fit a power law curve to the data (feel free to try fitting literally any other curve to the data, it won’t fit as well)…and have excel report the equation and R^2…
If you want to manually delete periods of Bitcoin price mania and run the analysis again, you’ll see the exponent drops but the R^2 goes up. In fact, the equation is a near perfect fit for the last 9 years.
Ok, so now that I’ve told you how to generate a formula for bitcoin price as a function of date, you can repeat the process taking sats from the beginning to 2016, and then 2017, and then 2018, etc…what you’ll see is these equations are remarkably similar and all do a surprisingly good job of predicting bitcoin price today…literally many years in advance…
Should bitcoin be closer to $55,000 today than $150,000? The math says yes. But back when bitcoin was $600 in 2016, predicting price would be $55,000 in 2026 sounded insane. But here we are.

2026-01-31 00:37:19 UTC

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You must invest terribly if you haven’t done well the past 5 years in bitcoin. Bitcoin isn’t a get rich quick scheme or a buy one and get rich instantly investment…
That said, people expecting another 1 million fold increase in price (literally x1,000,000, I was there) are not thinking rationally. The would make bitcoin more valuable than all value on earth. But another 100x over 20 years is optimistic but reasonable.

2026-01-31 00:34:16 UTC

Finally, something blue haired Karen’s and conservatives can agree on: we need to decrease government power. The recently created federal department called ICE (it’s about 20 years old) is somewhat unique among US law enforcement agencies.
How so? ICE is largely tasked with non-criminal “administrative” law violations. For these types of violations, because they are not criminal, you don’t get all those rights that come with due process…
Congress passed the Posse Commitatus act in 1878, prohibiting the army from being used to enforce domestic law. It also forbids the executive branch to commandeer local law enforcement to enforce federal law.
This act was expanded in 1950 to include the Air Force. And rather quietly again in early 2021 to include the navy, marines, and space force.
While I’m no fan of illegal immigration of bad people, I’m happy to see newly expanded government powers scaled back.

2026-01-30 16:52:25 UTC

Here’s an advantage of bip110: by precluding long script hashes, the risk of very hard to verify blocks that could be made using long standing non-data embedding bugs will go away (these take hours to verify but have never happened).
I have heard it said that this will cripple bitcoin functionality (ie, you won’t be able to do stuff like use key a and key b if it’s only been 3 months or less otherwise after three months either key a or key b or key c can be used)…but I don’t think that’s true…the script hash is always of fixed length…that’s half the point of a hash!
But yeah, for cool tricks like the degrading multisig above the script will be long and long scripts could just as easily be used to stuff data that only gets revealed upon spending the output, not creating it…
But I don’t see a downside to limiting script hash length…but I’m not qualified to declare this to definitively be true.

2026-01-30 03:38:56 UTC

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Bitcoin is on sale!

2026-01-30 03:36:17 UTC

We should be happy that bitcoin is cheaper. Don’t be butt hurt about the fact that if you would have waited 90 days to buy Bitcoin you’d have 50% more. You’re lucky to have as much as you do already!
And this is a long game. Did you think you could replace the world financial system and it would be a piece of cake? This dip is nothing. If you’ve been stacking for more than a year, don’t cry about unrealized gains that have decreased…the fact is you didn’t sell before is because you wanted the insurance of bitcoin, not the payout…so buy more while it’s cheap!

2026-01-30 03:32:43 UTC

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I’m on 25 but I can’t relay transactions, so relay policy is irrelevant to my satellite node.

2026-01-30 03:00:00 UTC

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Why do you feel a new relay policy brings risk to bitcoin? Perhaps you were unaware of the unsavory data embedded already long ago in the chain?

2026-01-30 02:32:27 UTC

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Altruism doesn’t scale

2026-01-30 02:30:05 UTC

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Can’t have my stack. AFAICT, the only thing that is different is that my savings rate is higher 50% now than in October…bitcoin price only matters when you sell (which is when you want it high) and buy (which is when you want it low)…in between price is irrelevant.

2026-01-30 02:28:13 UTC

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I do not contradict myself. I think there are people who genuinely believe in bip110 and while I believe it’s obviously wrong and core’s approach is directionally correct, I want to discuss the subject to see if there’s any nuance I’ve missed or validity behind genuine believers rationale.
But I’ve only found tribalists and good hearted if misguided people who feel thinks out instead of think things through.

2026-01-30 01:24:21 UTC

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I am. What about relay policy makes you feel like bitcoin needs defense?

2026-01-30 01:22:29 UTC

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If bitcoin needed you to defend it, it’s already failed

2026-01-30 01:20:18 UTC

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Well, then I have encouraging news: relay policy isn’t relevant to whether bitcoin succeeds as money and changes the world or not.

2026-01-30 01:17:15 UTC

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Just because someone believes themselves to have the obviously correct answer doesn’t mean they refuse reason…
I can understand you believing such a position means closed minded, but that’s a logical fallacy and non-sequitur

2026-01-30 01:06:54 UTC

Someday I’d love to meet a bip-110 supporter in real life to discuss the issue…I see the core 30 position as obviously the “correct” one (modulo implementation/communication nits)…
It is too easy for people to be tribal and caveman-brained when interacting with text only…but genuine debate in front of a live person is so much easier to remain thoughtful and engaged.
I would love to hear a legit argument against core 30 relay changes (that remain valid in the long run; obviously there was no rush to rip off the 🩹, but it was thought preferable to making small changes periodically, which is debatable). But I only want to hear it from someone who would be willing to be proven wrong…because everyone entering any debate at any time should be willing to be proven wrong!

2026-01-30 01:00:13 UTC

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You have a good heart. But not a good understanding of this technical issue. Cheers!

2026-01-30 00:59:30 UTC

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I agree there wasn’t any urgency to change and serial small changes with never ending whining about small changes probably was the best approach instead of the “rip off the band aid all at once” approach.
But relay policy has nothing to do with Bitcoin consensus. Think about it…if relay policy were necessary to keep bitcoin working, bitcoin doesn’t actually work.

2026-01-29 22:11:47 UTC

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“A pdf file or else was not self-evidently present on-chain in any meaningful sense. Bytes on-chain are not a file. A file is bytes *plus* an agreed decoding and interpretation process.”
Did you think relay rules change this?

2026-01-29 22:03:46 UTC

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That could be epic or torture, depending on context 😂

2026-01-29 22:03:11 UTC

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Indeed. I’m surprised loan rates backed by bitcoin are so high. Houses literally offer better rates when used as loan collateral…and those take time to sell!

2026-01-29 22:00:03 UTC

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Bitcoin might have to wait in line while the great gold reset people have been preparing for since 1971 runs its course.

2026-01-29 21:58:30 UTC

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Girlfriend and wife? You must possess powerful knowledge or wizardry.

2026-01-29 21:54:56 UTC

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I was gonna say, laws vary considerably by geography 🤣

2026-01-29 21:54:38 UTC

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I’ll take it. Power law best fit says something like $111,000, but that level is only ⅓rd of the time. We aren’t that far below median expected price. Things are going very close to exactly as expected…if just doesn’t feel good that the natural spread of bitcoin price is 4x median to ½ the median. But that 8-fold variation is what is necessary to hide the underlying time-price pattern.

2026-01-29 21:51:13 UTC

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Employment rules are tricky there 🤣

2026-01-29 21:48:45 UTC

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Have you heard of that AirBnB-like system for car rentals? Depending on where one lives, it can be profitable with the right car.

2026-01-29 21:30:04 UTC

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I’m sorry you don’t understand Linux terminal commands. And if you did, you would see over a decade ago one transaction encoded a PDF file…
I hope you realize data on disk is not stored “continuously” and that lack of repay filters has nothing to do with how blocks are propagated or stored.
At any rate, i can’t correct some tribal non-causal thinking like “unless CSAM is uploaded by via new officially sanctioned rules…”—it’s clear you want Bitcoin even if it has CSAM and want to make a distinction where no difference exists. You couldn’t pay me to pretend to be this non-sequitur.

2026-01-29 21:24:52 UTC

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I have my lambo :)

2026-01-29 21:14:50 UTC

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Hard pass :)

2026-01-29 21:13:48 UTC

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lol…how discreet is the girlfriend 🤣

2026-01-29 20:22:37 UTC

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For regular Linux nodes:
Step 1) make sure you have the command line text editor jq installed
sudo apt update
sudo apt install jq --install-recommends
Step 2) Extract child porn from disk via bitcoin-cli:
bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction 54e48e5f5c656b26c3bca14a8c95aa583d07ebe84dde3b7dd4a78f4e4186e713 true | jq -r '.vout[].scriptPubKey.asm' | cut -c3- | xxd -p -r | tail +9c | head -c 184292 > ThisIsTheChildPornographyIWishToViewOfMyOwnFreeWillEvenThoughIKnowItIsACrimeToViewThisFile.pdf
Enjoy! But I warn you, don’t commit felonies. I also warn you, you do not need to commit a felony to have a rational discussion of this topic. If I were you, I would delete the file immediately…
That said, since you now know with certainty that it is possible to embed arbitrary image data on the blockchain since the beginning, should we abandon the bitcoin project? Should we decide we mere plebs have no right to honest money?

2026-01-29 19:57:40 UTC

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1) Much like instructions to build a firearm isn’t a firearm, I distribute nothing, but you have expressed a desire to view CP.
2) Now that you have been warned that you have CP on your node and have stated that you care, what will you choose to do? Will you stop using bitcoin? Advocate that nobody be allowed to use it? Seek imprisonment for those running nodes with decade old CP embedded in it?

2026-01-29 19:53:33 UTC

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The story of humanity, on the long arc of history, is all about various forms of murder, theft and slavery. And you are right to recognize one modern form of slavery through the hijacking of your dopamine centers / most basic human primitive brainstem reactions/behaviors.

2026-01-29 19:48:20 UTC

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Where do you believe kilobytes of contiguous arbitrary data exists?
Hint: it’s not on disk!

2026-01-29 19:45:11 UTC

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Ok, but before I do, I must warn you that by executing the command I will send you, you will be guilty of felony possession of CP.
But recall, my question was whether or not you care, not whether or not you willingly wish to engage in CP.

2026-01-29 19:42:02 UTC

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Ok…let’s try another route.
Do you run a full node? If yes, you have CP on your computer. Do you care?

2026-01-29 18:05:26 UTC

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I don’t believe thinking people will adopt BIP-110 or even a well thought out variant thereof…
But I do question the wisdom of the “rip off the bandaid” approach core has taken. I don’t even think doing it now is better than later…just encouraging other implementations to be more permissive in non-standard transaction relay would suffice.

2026-01-29 18:02:28 UTC

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It already has.

2026-01-29 18:00:35 UTC

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Understood.
You have made it very clear that objective proof isn’t your goal.

2026-01-29 18:00:03 UTC

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I’m talking about relay of transactions, which isn’t synonymous (or doesn’t have to be synonymous) with long-term entry into local mempool…payment for long term storage goes out of band to miners…
But your discussion makes me wonder if every non-mining relaying node should charge for non-standard transaction relay services…I haven’t thought about that before…

2026-01-29 17:57:20 UTC

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But you have failed to demonstrate this.

2026-01-29 17:54:47 UTC

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I think this is proof that your emotions and brainstem reflexes are stronger than your supratentorial apparatus. And I mean this genuinely, not pejoratively or as an insult…it is very hard to overcome lifelong programming that is well tuned to take advantage of the ancient evolutionary traits of primitive neurocircuitry. In short, I don’t blame _you_ for being a tool. But you are most definitely being used for nefarious ends, even if you can’t see it (the road to hell is paved with good intentions).
But if you have a thoughtful objection to my attempt at reframing your understanding, I’m happy to address it specifically and dispassionately.

2026-01-29 17:48:44 UTC

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Cool. Downloaded the app. Wasn’t expecting “login” as the place to put my npub/nsec…log in sounds like I’m requesting an account on your server.

2026-01-29 17:43:05 UTC

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Beautiful! Enjoy nature!

2026-01-29 17:42:25 UTC

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lol…love it.
That said, the default autocomplete from history in fish is really nice. There is some package that does this for bash (starship might be the name?).

2026-01-29 16:21:35 UTC

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Oh, the issue about time locked transaction filtering isn’t important. But neither are any of the issues you are seemingly concerned about.
I can take a stab at reframing your understanding.
Issue #1 Arbitrary data storage on chain, including potentially unlawful numbers like CP (remember, all data is merely long strings of 1s and 0s; this is a fact that can not be argued with).
If I send you an email with additional numbers attached that can be unambiguously and statistically undeniably interpreted as CP, does that make YOU a criminal? Shouldn’t you filter your incoming emails to prevent CP? Or maybe your email provider should go to prison for not filtering it for you?
*Also, please do remember that bitcoin blocks stored on disk are scrambled using a very simple algorithm to prevent antivirus software from detecting problems and deleting files you don’t want deleted…* If you want to interact with the illegal numbers, it will require you to install software or write commands to reconstruct those illegal numbers from blockchain data…it would be beyond incredibly unwise and foolish to say bitcoin isn’t allowed to exist because people could choose to disseminate and reconstruct CP privately…Karen-esque catastrophizing of CP on chain is a direct attack on Bitcoin’s existence and by definition there is no preventing illegal numbers from being on chain (hint, there already are illegal numbers on chain, you just don’t know how to access them).
2) Hobbyist support for archival nodes matters
This might have been true for me when I was very briefly roughly 1% of the bitcoin hash power back in 2010, but even then probably not. Bandwidth isn’t in short supply but even if it were, broadcast transmission of the entire blockchain makes more sense than peer to peer transmission for all humans on earth (fun fact, I run an offline bitcoin node with a receive only satellite connection to one online node and have since before the pandemic…see https://blockstream.space, it’s free).
Bitcoin owners running a node to validate their own bitcoin and the validity of the entire chain does matter. It’s a big part of what brings value to bitcoin: rejection of invalid coins. But as far as helping other people to download blocks or relay transactions, the effects of many thousands of home nodes is minimal compared to the over abundance of superiorly resourced nodes at data centers. Not that I am advocating for a data center only node approach, that’s folly, but it doesn’t take many such nodes to serve all users and be remarkably censorship resistant.
In summary, I think technical misunderstanding, the very natural human reaction of feeling disgusted and revolted about CP, and the understandable fear of government persecution have all combined to make really dumb ideas like BIP-444/110 come about…
That said, I think it a bit premature to abandon filtering entirely…it’s a gift to miners that we don’t need as users to give them right now. On a social level, it’s best to avoid unimportant technical issues like filtering lest we invite undue attention and misunderstanding from the general public, law enforcement, and legislators. But sometimes programmers only see the end state of long complex processes and autistically jump to the inevitable end game.

2026-01-29 15:44:25 UTC

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What does CBR stand for?
And about near future…the argument is moot because time increases and eventually all transactions will be valid in the near future.
And about underfunded fees…that too is moot as additional out of band payment is made at time of transaction submission.
That said, while there is an obvious analogy to op return filtering, I don’t think this issue is currently even close to being of economic concern and might never be.

2026-01-29 15:39:39 UTC

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You have not read the bip nor understood transaction timelocks, have you?
If you are able to understand the technical concepts, you’ll understand my original post is pointing out a genuine issue many years if not decades in advance…and it’s an issue that’s orders of magnitude less important than other sources of centralization pressure but it is otherwise wholly analogous to the op return issue which is still if relatively minor importance currently (but potentially may be a big issue).
Bitcoin requires more than brainstem reflex and tribalism.

2026-01-29 15:35:28 UTC

Bitcoin sale!

2026-01-29 07:44:43 UTC

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No, it doesn’t. See above.

2026-01-29 03:37:40 UTC

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True story: in 2016 I bought an Apple Watch to celebrate completion of 10 years of medical training…the first thing I did was turn on the orbiting planet watch face and scroll ahead in time…I stopped at July 2020, looked at the picture and said: “oh boy, 2020 is gonna be a heck of a year!” (Look at the nearly perfect linear arrangement of literally every planet you can see with the naked eye; ignore that Pluto and Uranus…you need a telescope to see them)…
Then I was reminded of Genesis 1:14
“(ESV) And God said, “Let there be lights in the expanse of the heavens to separate the day from the night. And let them be for signs and for seasons, and for days and years,…”
The word signs “אוֹת” in Hebrew is used a few different ways in the Old Testament, including as an omen in reference to predicted events (see 1 Sam 10:7,9 for example).
Is there anything to it? I don’t control the universe but, if I did, I shouldn’t think it too hard to do!
https://image.nostr.build/2003eb04e659670074b22423b2dcadbf33882a8bc87ed7d0c1809bf2178359e5.jpg

2026-01-29 03:25:11 UTC

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Stupid as in we shouldn’t filter or we shouldn’t bother changing filter yet because it doesn’t meaningfully contribute to mining centralization het?

2026-01-29 01:22:38 UTC

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This I love.

2026-01-29 01:22:15 UTC

So, you know how relay rules prevent you from submitting a #bitcoin transaction that is not yet valid? I’m talking about time locked transactions…
Well, maybe we should drop that relay filter as well…otherwise miners might accept (out of band) txs for long term storage (for a fee). This would favor mining companies more likely to still be around at the time the transaction becomes valid…a case of bigger miners get bigger while little guys lose out.
I don’t see anyone talking about this yet…but the parallels to op return are pretty obvious.
@npub17u5…t4tp

2026-01-28 21:53:49 UTC

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Meh, it’s more nuanced than that. Dealing with miner centralization from out of band transaction submission may cost us relay filtering…was it worth fixing this issue _now_? Of course not.
But until someone can find a way to filter st the relay level and stop out of band transaction submission to miners, I don’t care about consensus valid data storage…bitcoin is going to have to deal with it eventually anyhow, so why not now?

2026-01-28 21:50:09 UTC

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I can’t stress enough how much I approve of the security model for small to moderate sums…gateway wallet for the normie with just enough privacy and ease of backup to get people interested in the cypherpunk ethos.

2026-01-28 21:48:27 UTC

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At least numismatics are (usually) verifiable by appearance. I have some silver coins I’m not so sure about…

2026-01-28 03:59:08 UTC

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This is the way. Bitcoin first.
I have tiny amounts of XXI and ASST (like $100, bought via treasury dividends on backup kids college savings).

2026-01-28 03:57:54 UTC

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I put roughly $10k into STRK,F,D…so far I’m down 12% on K & D (6% ish if you include the two dividends) and up 2.5% on F. Ironically, I’m up 2.8% on C (excluding dividends), which is my dominant non bitcoin position. I put $1000 in to MSTR a few years ago and somehow that’s worth $14k now…but fwiw, I put $10k in to MSTR in another retirement account around the same time as the STRKFD and it’s down 40% 🤣

2026-01-28 02:03:50 UTC

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I have bought MSTR with the dividends, but I’ve only owned it for 3 or 4 months.

2026-01-28 01:51:26 UTC

So…gold…it is up quite a lot.
If I were a central bank antihumanist, and I didn’t drink my own cool aid too much, I’d realize fiat is over and we have to substitute fiat currency with something else…something better…maybe something our grandparents taught us how to manipulate and control…
I am suggesting the move to gold is being forced by Bitcoin. Bitcoin is too good of a money for the psychopaths who defraud us all via fiat currency and partial reserve banking to want to use…but bitcoin is too good to let them continue to use fiat.

2026-01-28 01:47:08 UTC

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I’ve got a moderate STRC allocation, but I would caution anyone against storing dollars here until bitcoin drops sharply…STRC could trade down too…there is no floor, only a ceiling.

2026-01-28 01:05:52 UTC

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Self interest…self interest works. Anything relying on altruism won’t work as money.

2026-01-28 01:03:25 UTC

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I’m surprised too. But I’m also unaware of how quickly money can really move. Is 6 months a long or a short time? It feels like STRC has been around long enough for anyone who wanted any to get some.

2026-01-27 18:12:10 UTC

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I used to work out with a fellow physician who used to operate with SB…small world.

2026-01-27 18:10:04 UTC

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We went to the IceHotel in northern Sweden last week and a year ago…absolutely beautiful aurora last year:
https://image.nostr.build/635ec7f5644dc2119a621f2f70e729f12898a181a98314389d17af531d888136.jpg

2026-01-27 18:07:16 UTC

Saylor has accomplished something brilliant and yet obvious at the same time: $STRC is exactly what anyone would do if they truly believed in the long term market beating returns of bitcoin…or any asset, really. Why has this not been tried before?
Well, it has, actually. Kings would issue perpetual debts payable by his subjects with the expectation that the debt proceeds would buy far more economic activity than the sum of interest payments. Because kings have absolute authority, they can pledge the current and future property of his subjects as collateral.
Ok, besides kings and agents of unlimited taxation authority, why hasn’t this been done before by private citizens?
There hasn’t been anything to invest in that was worth the summation of interest payments to the borrower and worth the risk to the lender…until bitcoin…

2026-01-23 22:11:11 UTC

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Only the important news gets reported here.

2026-01-22 17:10:51 UTC

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There is no right vs. left…they are all authoritarians.

2026-01-22 17:07:39 UTC

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It’s all about making assumptions to make the permutations/combinations manageable.

2026-01-22 17:07:04 UTC

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Yikes

2026-01-22 16:16:50 UTC

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Having watched bitcoin peak and crash for every cycle, I never formulated a plan ahead of time to try to capitalize off it…now that I have a plan, we are in a new era of no blow off tops it seems 😂

2026-01-21 17:30:12 UTC

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I pray for an orderly prolonged bear market for my final push…I came close to selling. I’m not ready to do all the shit rich people have to do like think about taxes and tax planning and buying stuff. I’ve got shit to do at work and I don’t want to be distracted…I want to go from pleb to IDGAF and still have a big stack left over…and so I hodl. I stupidly sold chunks in 2013 and 2017. I’d be independent in dollars and still have generational wealth potential had I not done that.

2026-01-21 17:24:56 UTC

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I’m pissed they do easily abandoned the south coast of Arizona. Huge mistake.

2026-01-21 17:23:31 UTC

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🫡

2026-01-21 17:22:55 UTC

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If bitcoin dropped to $50,000, this would fit a curve drawn through the bottom 1% of bitcoin prices over time. By the end of the year, this curve will go through $60,000. So far, the best curve (of reasonable complexity) says price today would be about $111,000. Under 80% of that curve, I buy. Between 80% and 140%, I hodl. Between 140-150% I will take chips off the table and hodl in dollars until we get back down to 80% or under.
(10^-16.62)×(days since 1/3/2009))^5.71
This is a reasonably conservative formula derived from data up to late 2024…data from 2011-2016 yields highly variably curve fits but after mid 2016, but best fit curves for 2011-20xx where xx>16 are all very darn close to each other.

2026-01-21 17:15:10 UTC

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Everyone wants easy fast cheap payments without security concerns or responsibilities. Bitcoin can never do this on its own. The closest is third party lightning setups without liquidity problems.

2026-01-21 17:13:01 UTC

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Without something like the golden rule, the belief would not propagate to the next generation. There is probably a minimal set of beliefs necessary for propagation through time/generations.

2026-01-21 09:10:30 UTC

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That’s quite a premium over spot

2026-01-20 22:51:14 UTC

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Talking to trees is highly under rated.

2026-01-20 19:28:41 UTC

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These people…the first lie we must tell ourselves about others to permit our hearts to murder is to dehumanize the “other”
I’m always skeptical of people who want to “other” people groups.

2026-01-20 18:50:27 UTC

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Of course. But I’m betting you have never spoken with someone who was there that shared your current view.

2026-01-20 18:46:36 UTC

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Yup. That is why I won’t ever get worked up over invasions and genocide. You either defend yourself and those around you or you don’t. If a good hearted savior rescues you, good on that savior. And shame on you for being so stupid as to continue living defenseless.